MLB Stolen Base Prop Picks for Monday

sportsbookreview.com

10 April 2023

Steals are back on the menu in 2023. With so many players running wild, can we find value in the stolen base market? Find out with our best MLB stolen base prop picks based on the best MLB odds.

The stolen base market has become trickier to navigate with home run rates rising back to those of the juiced-ball era following somewhat of a power outage last year.

However, we've still managed to identify a trio of players who are trading at prices far too long relative to their pedigree and projections on Monday.

Here are our top MLB stolen base prop picks for Monday (odds via DraftKings and theScore Bet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s MLB stolen base props

Tommy Edman Over 0.5 steals (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Bobby Witt Over 0.5 steals (+450 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐
Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 steals (+500 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐

Monday’s MLB stolen base prop picks

Tommy Edman Over 0.5 steals (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

It would appear Tommy Edman is running less often to begin the 2023 campaign. However, the St. Louis Cardinals infielder has two attempts in his first nine games, for an average of one every 4.5 games. During the previous two seasons, Edman attempted 70 steals in 312 contests for an average of one every 4.45. So, he's nearly right in line with the pace he's kept since becoming a regular for the Cardinals (TL;DR don't get discouraged by him having only one steal).

On Monday, Edman owns the third-highest stolen base projection at 0.25, according to NumberFire. He's just behind Julio Rodriguez and Tim Anderson, but both are trading at around +250 at most sportsbooks. He's also priced 70 cents longer than fellow NL Central infielder Nico Hoerner, who's projected for 0.20 stolen bases on Monday.

We're getting good value on Edman, both in regard to his projection and also by shopping his odds. At BetMGM and theScore Bet, Edman is trading at +360. Take the extra 40 cents of value at DraftKings and bet Edman to steal a base at +400.

Bobby Witt Over 0.5 steals (+450 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐

If you previously liked Bobby Witt to swipe a ton of bags in 2023, you should still feel that way. He's gotten off to a bit of a slow start at the plate, but the Kansas City Royals star is the fastest man in the majors, and he already has eight bolts in 10 games.

One of the biggest reasons for optimism - besides his blazing speed - is the fact that despite Witt's abysmal .211 OBP, he's still recorded a steal this season. His projections continue to represent how much of a stolen-base threat he is, too. He enters Monday's action with the sixth-highest projection, per NumberFire.

However, he's trading at far longer odds than the likes of fellow speedsters Amed Rosario (0.12 projected stolen bases), Marcus Semien (0.10), and Esteury Ruiz (0.02), who've all had their own issues getting on base this year.

Witt was one of the favorites entering the season to lead MLB in steals, so you should expect him to get going soon. He's trading at +400 at BetMGM, so head to theScore Bet for this pick.

Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 steals (+500 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐

There's really no reason for Jake McCarthy's price to be this long on Monday. He's already attempted three steals through nine games - he was successful on two - and is tied with Witt for the day's sixth-highest projection at 0.22, according to NumberFire.

Perhaps he's trading at longer odds because the Arizona Diamondbacks are facing left-handed starter Wade Miley and McCarthy is a lefty. However, McCarthy owned almost identical splits against right-handers and southpaws last season. Meanwhile, teammate Corbin Carroll is being priced 50 cents shorter than McCarthy at theScore Bet despite being almost totally unable to get on base vs. lefties and entering Monday's action with a stolen base projection of just 0.10.

McCarthy is one of the fastest players in the league and has already shown a willingness to run. He's trading at +450 at DraftKings and BetMGM, so we're once again heading to theScore Bet for 50 cents of additional value.

MLB stolen base prop picks made 4/10/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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