Fading Reigning NL Cy Young Winner

sportsbookreview.com

19 May 2023

One of the best ways to find value in Major League Baseball games is to attack the player props markets. Read on for our favorite MLB player props for Friday based on the best MLB odds.

I began experimenting on Thursday with hunting pitcher strikeout Unders, and following some relative success, we're back with an Under tied to one of the game's premier arms.

Meanwhile, with Aaron Judge's hitting props officially cooked, we turn our attention to his teammate as the New York Yankees head to Great American ~~Small~~ Ball Park.

Here are our top MLB player props for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s MLB player props

Sandy Alcantara Under 6.5 strikeouts (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ken Waldichuk Over 3.5 strikeouts (-125 via Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 total bases (+130 via Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s MLB player prop picks

Sandy Alcantara Under 6.5 strikeouts (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has mostly picked up where he left off last season in the strikeout department. The right-hander pitches more to contact, as his 8.59 strikeouts per nine innings and 22.9% strikeout rate both rank outside the top 30 among qualified starting pitchers.

Ballpark Pal prices the Over on this strikeout prop at +209 based on its simulations. However, Caesars is pricing Over 6.5 strikeouts at -113, the shortest offering among our best sports betting apps. Both DraftKings and BetMGM are posting the Under at -120.

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Alcantara is projected to record just 5.58 strikeouts on Friday, according to NumberFire. That gives us plenty of wiggle room to feel comfortable placing this bet at -120.

Our Mike Spector is also fading Alcantara and the Marlins on Friday, as he's riding with the San Francisco Giants in his MLB best bets.

Ken Waldichuk Over 3.5 strikeouts (-125 via Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oakland Athletics left-hander Ken Waldichuk takes on the Houston Astros on Friday, and that's a generally terrifying task. However, the Astros own the seventh-lowest wRC+ in MLB this season, making the prospect of Waldichuk getting chased early slightly less concerning.

Ballpark Pal's projected price for Waldichuk to record four-plus strikeouts is -162, and FanDuel is hanging a -194 price on this prop. Meanwhile, we can get it at -125 through Bet365. Among our best sportsbooks, DraftKings offers it at -130.

Waldichuk is projected to record 5.13 strikeouts on Friday, so there's an argument to push this to Over 4.5. You can get that prop at +190 via Bet365's pitcher strikeouts milestones market. Of our best sports betting sites, FanDuel offers five-plus strikeouts at +124, which is below Ballpark Pal's projected price of +136.

I'd be fine playing either number at Bet365, though I'm more confident in our selection.

Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 total bases (+130 via Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Aaron Judge is simply too hot to bet on right now. His total bases prop is trading as low as -140 through DraftKings, and BetMGM and Caesars are hanging an absurd +165 price point on him to hit a home run. Thankfully, all of the attention on Judge has left us with some value on Yankees teammate Anthony Rizzo.

Ballpark Pal prices Over 1.5 total bases for Rizzo at -105, making this +130 price very enticing. It's even more appealing when considering Rizzo owns the 14th-best wRC+ this season and now heads to Great American Ball Park, perhaps the only park more hitter-friendly than Yankee Stadium.

NumberFire also projects Rizzo to be one of Friday's most valuable fantasy hitters, which helps us further evaluate this bet.

I also placed a half-unit on Rizzo to hit a home run Friday. Ballpark Pal projects a +279 price for a Rizzo long ball. FanDuel is close with its offering of +285, while Caesars has it listed at +441 (Ontario bettors can get it at +450 via theScore Bet).

MLB player props made 5/19/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.