MLB Stolen Base Prop Picks for Friday

sportsbookreview.com

14 April 2023

Steals are back on the menu in 2023. With so many players running wild, can we find value in the stolen base market? Find out with our best MLB stolen base prop picks based on the best MLB odds.

It appears the sportsbooks are finally catching on to the fact that stealing bases is the thing all the cool kids are doing now. A number of the MLB's top speedsters are priced exactly as such on Friday, making it increasingly difficult to find value in the market.

However, difficult isn't the same thing as impossible. We've sifted through the stolen base projections and odds to find three picks offering good value on Friday.

Here are our top MLB stolen base prop picks for Friday (odds via DraftKings and bet365; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s MLB stolen base props

Tommy Edman Over 0.5 steals (+390 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 steals (+475 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 steals (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s MLB stolen base prop picks

Tommy Edman Over 0.5 steals (+390 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tommy Edman has the highest stolen base projection for Friday's games by a significant margin, according to NumberFire. He's projected for 0.28 steals, with Julio Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and Josh Rojas all at 0.23. Rodriguez and Rojas are both priced around +300 at most sportsbooks - with the former slightly shorter - while Mullins is trading below +200 across the board.

Edman still has only one steal this season, but he's gotten on base at essentially the same rate he did last year (he's actually walking more than he ever has). It looks like he's slowed down a bit in terms of sprint speed, but the difference is negligible when you consider the advantage the new bases and pickoff rules provide.

Despite owning the highest projection and serving as a perennial stolen base threat, Edman is being priced closer to what I'd deem as the third tier of potential base-stealers (those with a projection of around 0.15). His +375 price at theScore Bet is also worth playing if you don't have a bet365 account. He's as short as +350 at DraftKings, so take advantage of these generous numbers.

Marcus Semien Over 0.5 steals (+475 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Texas Rangers led the league in steals last year, but they're nearly at the bottom of the pack this season due to their utter failure to get on base. The Rangers own the sixth-worst OBP in the majors, and Marcus Semien has played a major role in that woeful number.

However, Semien and the Rangers get Houston Astros right-hander Luis Garcia on Friday. Garcia has struggled through his first two starts, allowing an average of .333 to go along with an 11.1% walk rate. It's possible Garcia is struggling due to the pitch clock and his old windup now being outlawed.

The projections reflect this expectation that the Rangers should get on base more on Friday. Semien is tied for the fourth-highest stolen-base projection at 0.20, and teammate Adolis Garcia also enters play with an expectation that he could realistically steal a base (0.15 projection).

Semien is still as speedy as ever, so look for him to try to give the Rangers a boost on the base paths in this AL West showdown.

Similarly, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Tyler O'Neill is trading at +475 and owns the same projection as Semien. Both serve as strong value plays on Friday, as those players in their range are trading at far shorter odds.

Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 steals (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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We're sticking with the Rangers-Astros game in this one. Kyle Tucker's projection of 0.16 steals suggests he's not the most enticing bet in the market, but his +600 price is impossible to ignore.

Tucker is trading at what's easily the longest price among players in his range, and he comes with none of the on-base issues that our two previous picks do. The Astros outfielder owns a ridiculous .429 OBP thanks to a 17.5% walk rate, and he already has three steals this season.

Tucker isn't particularly speedy, but Rangers catcher Jonah Heim is one of the league's worst in terms of pop time and exchange speed, giving the Astros star an advantage on the base paths.

This price is my limit, though, as I'm less interested in Tucker at +550, which is what he's trading at with theScore Bet.

MLB stolen base prop picks made 4/14/2023 at 12:50 p.m. ET.