MLB Stolen Base Odds: Is Ronald Acuna a Steal at +150?

Armed with a season's worth of stolen base data, our MLB expert Josh Inglis breaks down the MLB stolen base leader odds and offers his take on why Acuna is not only in tough to lead the Majors, but offers very little value to do so.

Ronald Acuna set the modern-day stolen base record last season with an incredible 73 bags on 87 attempts. He’s projected to pace the league again in 2024 with an Atlanta Braves lineup that might be better this season.

However, at the current MLB odds of +150 to lead the league in swipes, Acuna is anything but a steal at that price, and with a possible decline in bags for the 26-year-old, are there better options to lead MLB in stolen bases in 2024?

Before you lock in any MLB picks, let's do a deep dive into handicapping the 2024 stolen-base leader market. 

Swipes Up

Before I get into the talent, I think it’s important to outline just how much stealing was up in 2023. The rule changes implemented last year were noticeable right out of Spring Training in terms of increases in stole-base attempts. 

Once the cloud of the 2023 season was settled, successful stolen bases per game were up over 40% year-on-year from 0.51 per team game to 0.72 per team game. Adding in all attempts, each team was averaging 0.90 stole-base attempts per game. Teams were running more (some teams more than others) and were getting caught doing so at a lower rate. 

However, expecting another 70-plus stolen bases this year is a tough ask when all the big projections (THE BAT X, ZIPS, STEAMER, and ATC) don’t have a single player topping 57 swipes — and that’s with a full year’s worth of data with the new rules. 

Ronald Acuna was going for the record books last year and it’s possible to assume a dip in his numbers. That's giving more value to others in the field outside of Acuna and his look-away +150 odds.

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Stolen Base Leader Odds

Every major projection has the Atlanta Braves superstar to lead the league in stolen bases except ZIPS and ATC which both have Esteury Ruiz to pace the pack. The Oakland Athletics speedster is +275 to lead the MLB but I still think there is better value down the list. 

Here are the Top 10 betting favorites to lead the league in stolen bases. 

Odds courtesy bet365, February 28 2024

The market makes it look like a two-man race between Ruiz and Acuna, but there are a couple of better options in that list at much better prices. 

The cases against Acuna and Ruiz

Nobody is projecting another 70-plus swipes for Acuna this year. He has the record and the MVP, and long-term health might be more important which is hard to do when you attempt nearly 100 steals in a season. 

His set-up, green light, offense, and track record are the reasons he is easily the favorite, but I’m not tying up my wager for a full season on +150 odds in a market where injuries are bound to happen. 

Looking at Esteury Ruiz, it’s a pass at this price. Acuna is a much better on-base player and is projected to have an OBP 100 points higher than Ruiz. Ruiz had 67 swipes last year on 80 attempts but getting on base and collecting a lot of at-bats are working against him.

He posted a .309 OBP last year which is an awful rate and his 4% walk rate was also in the bottom 2% in baseball. I’m not paying an already short price on a player who can’t get on base, sometimes hits at the bottom of the order, and doesn’t get a lot of at-bats because his lineup lacks decent hitters who can move the order along. 

“There is a heck of a lot that can happen over the course of a season that can prevent one single player from ever being 40% to lead the league in a stat,” Derek Carty, the creator of THE BAT and THE BAT X, explains about the lack of value in the betting favorites in the market.

“We knew the Braves wanted to take advantage of the rules last year and we saw Acuna steal a ridiculous amount, but there is always the possibility of regression, of injury, of someone else being on the right side of variance and simply finishing a few steals higher than him.  It's rare that we see true stud hitters stealing that many bases ever because teams want to keep them healthy. They could scale him back for that reason alone.”  

Witt the wonder

In his second year in the big leagues, Bobby Witt Jr. played 158 games, had 694 plate appearances (12th in baseball), and finished with 49 stolen bases on 64 attempts. He finished fourth in the league in swipes and plays for a Kansas City Royals offense that attempted 1.3 stolen bases per game last year which ranked second in the league and +0.45 more attempts/game than the 15th-placed team. 

He is the best option in the second tier at +1,100 and Carty also agrees.

“There are so many ways that Acuna can NOT win as a 40% chance is just way too high,” Carty added when asked about the options outside Acuna and Ruiz. “I mean, especially when THE BAT X has Ruiz projected for three fewer steals and Witt for six fewer steals.  With two guys that close he probably isn't 40% even before considering the rest of the field.  Ruiz at +275 is also too high, but if Witt is +1,100 (implying an 8% chance to win), there's going to be a lot better value there.”

Everyone loves Elly De La Cruz, but he has issues with the strikeout and projects for 100 fewer PAs than Whitt. 

Looking at THE BAT X, the elite model has Acuna at the top with 53, Ruiz in second at 50, Witt next at 47, and Corbin Carroll in fourth at 42. Cruz is next but at dropoff 36. 

Considering the possibilities of injuries and Atlanta maybe scaling Acuna back because of his elite hitting, this stolen-base race could be a lot closer than the books are pricing it. 

There is no value in Acuna and Ruiz is such a risk at getting on base and PAs in general. The real value lies in the second tier and Witt at +1,100 has all the making of a value bet.

Witt gets a ton of at-bats, has an aggressive running offense, and isn’t an elite hitter like Acuna so no need to scale him back, he projects within six stolen bases of the leader in a stat that is hard to predict.

If Acuna steps back and Witt continues to improve his OBP and stealing, this could be a very tight race and I’d rather be holding +1,100 than +150 or +275 in a head-to-head. 

My best bet: Bobby Witty Jr. (+1,100 at bet365)

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