Betting Splits and NBA Sharp Money Picks for Monday March 18th
Today a new week begins with an 8-game NBA slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of NBA games tonight.
The Heat (37-30) have won two straight games and just took down the Pistons 104-101. Meanwhile, the 76ers (37-30) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 109-98 win over the Hornets. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and says “give me the home team laying short chalk.” However, despite receiving 67% of spread bets we’ve seen the 76ers fall from -3 to -2. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Miami, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. The Heat are only receiving 33% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. All three refs tonight (Bill Kennedy, Sean Wright and Matthew Myers) are considered “road refs,” with visitors covering between 51% and 53% of the time. The Heat are 2-0 against the 76ers this season, winning 119-113 in late January and 109-104 in early February. Both Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are questionable for tonight, which bears monitoring as their availability will likely cause a line move one way or the other. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 212 to 209. The under is receiving 56% of bets but 90% of dollars, a massive sharp under bet split. Both teams rank top 12 in defensive efficiency. Miami is 28th in terms of pace. Miami is 43-24 (64%) to the under this season, the best under team in the NBA.
The Timberwolves (46-21) have won two straight while the Jazz (29-38) have dropped four of their last five games. These teams just played each other on Saturday in Utah and the Timberwolves won 119-100. In tonight’s rematch, the line opened with Minnesota listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public sees another easy blowout win and cover with the Timberwolves. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets we’ve seen Minnesota fall from -7.5 to -6.5, with some shops even inching down to -6. This signals smart money grabbing the points with the unpopular home dog Jazz. Injuries are likely playing a factor in this line move as well, as Lauri Markkanen is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last six games with a quad injury. Karl Anthony Towns remains out for the Timberwolves with a knee injury while Rudy Gobert is questionable with a rib injury. The Jazz are 20-14 at home this season (as opposed to 9-24 on the road). Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 222.5 to 223.5. Currently 52% of bets but 72% of money is taking the over, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action. Utah ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. The Jazz are 37-29 (56%) to the over this season, the second best over team in the NBA trailing only the Thunder (38-28, 58%).
