Today’s NBA Betting Splits and Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday, January 5
Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets Under 223.5 (18% bets, 55% money)
This line opened with the Nuggets listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen some respected money grab the points with the big road dog, dropping the Magic from +10.5 to +9.5. This is a tough schedule spot for Denver, who is playing their second game in two nights. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back has gone 90-70 ATS (56%) this season. Pro bettors have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 224.5 to 223.5. This movement is especially notable because 82% of bets are on the over, yet the total fell. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under. The under is only getting 18% of bets but 55% of money — a whopping 37 percentage point smart money discrepancy.
The Nuggets are 22-13 (63%) to the under, the best under team in the NBA. Denver plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, ranking 30th in tempo. Slow pace is the best friend of an under because it chews up the clock and makes for fewer overall possessions, which translates to fewer opportunities to score. Meanwhile, both teams also rank in the top 10 in terms of defensive efficiency (Orlando 4th and Denver 9th). Matthew Myers, one of the lead refs tonight, is 53% to the under historically — one of the best under refs in the NBA.
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls Under 220 (45% bets, 80% money)
This line opened with the Bulls listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with Chicago, steaming the Bulls up from -8.5 to -9.5. Sharps have also targeted the under. The total opened at 222.5 and has fallen down to 220. The under is only receiving 45% of bets but 80% of money, a massive 35 percentage point smart money discrepancy. The Hornets are missing several key players due to injury, including LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward.
The Bulls are the 2nd-slowest team in the NBA, ranking 29th in pace of play. The Hornets rank 17th. Both teams also rank near the bottom in offensive efficiency, with the Bulls ranking 24th and the Hornets 26th. Two of tonight’s lead refs are considered “under refs,” with Scott Twardoski and Courtney Kirkland roughly 54% to the under historically. This matchup also qualifies as a “big spread under” system match, as the Bulls have moved from -8.5 to -9.5. The larger the spread, the better the correlative betting angle to the under, as typically the favorite coasts to a big lead and then takes their foot off the gas and runs out the clock late.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
