Today’s NBA Betting Splits and Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday, January 8
Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
Utah Jazz +8 at Milwaukee Bucks (29% bets, 73% money)
This line opened with the Bucks listed as an 11.5-point home favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Bucks at home. However, despite 71% of bets backing Milwaukee, we’ve actually seen the Bucks fall from -11.5 to -8. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already betting on Milwaukee to begin with? Because respected wiseguys have gotten down hard on Utah plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog. The Jazz are only receiving 29% of bets but 73% of the money, a whopping 44 percentage point smart money discrepancy. The Jazz are 7-2 over their last nine games, while the Bucks have dropped three of their last four. The Jazz are 21-16 ATS (57%) this season. The Bucks are just 15-21 ATS (42%), including 7-11 ATS (39%) as a home favorite. All three refs tonight are considered “road refs,” with Ray Acosta, Courtney Kirkland and JD Ralls between 51% and 54% ATS to the visitor historically.
Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 vs Phoenix Suns (58% bets, 82% money)
This line opened with the Clippers listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen Los Angeles move from -5.5 to -6.5, signaling sharp money laying the points with the home favorite. The Clippers are receiving 58% of bets and 82% of money, indicating a 24 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Reading between the lines, the bet splits show modest public support but an overload of smart money on Los Angeles. Both teams are playing the second leg of a back-to-back. However, the Clippers played the Lakers in Los Angeles and don’t have to travel, while the Suns played the Grizzlies and now have to travel cross country to Hollywood. The Clippers rank higher in both offensive efficiency (7th vs 13th) and defensive efficiency (9th vs 15th). The Suns are 13-23 ATS (36%) this season, the second worst in the NBA. The Clippers are 17-11 ATS (61%) as a favorite. Since this is a back-to-back for both teams, bettors would be wise to check the injury reports before tipoff in terms of players possibly resting for load management.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
