Today’s NBA Betting Splits and Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday, December 29
Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money or dollars a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 at Denver Nuggets (32% bets, 51% money)
This line opened with the Nuggets listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they’re rushing to the window to back the defending champion Nuggets at home. However, despite receiving 68% of bets, we’ve seen the Nuggets fall from -3.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Thunder, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Oklahoma City is only receiving 32% of bets but 51% of money, indicating a 19 percentage point smart money discrepancy. The Thunder also enjoy a rest vs tired advantage as they last played on Wednesday while the Nuggets are on the second leg of a back-to-back, having played last night. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back is 77-64 ATS (55%) this season. All three refs tonight are considered “road refs,” with Leon Wood, Karl Lane and Justin Van Duyne roughly 53% ATS to the road team historically. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS (71%) this season, the best in the NBA.
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 at Los Angeles Clippers (54% bets, 93% money)
This line opened with the Clippers listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which way to go. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen the Clippers fall from -6.5 to -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even, as there is no reason for the oddsmakers to adjust the spread. Reading between the lines, this indicates smart money grabbing the points with the road dog Grizzlies, dropping Memphis from +6.5 to +4.5. Memphis is only receiving 54% of bets but 93% of money, a whopping 39 percentage point smart money discrepancy. One big reason for the line move toward Memphis is the fact that star PG Ja Morant was upgraded to probable for tonight after missing the last game with an illness. Memphis is a perfect 4-0 since Morant returned to the lineup. All three refs tonight are “road refs,” with Bill Kennedy, Scott Twardoski and Jonathan Sterling roughly 52% ATS to the road team historically.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
