Today’s NBA Betting Splits and Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday, January 12
Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons Under 226.5 (31% bets, 79% money)
This total opened at 229 and has come crashing down to 226.5. This movement is especially notable because 69% of bets are taking the over yet the total fell. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public who is already sweating the over to begin with? Because respected money from pro bettors has gotten down hard on the under. The under is only receiving 31% of bets but 79% of money, indicating a 48 percentage point smart money discrepancy. The Rockets are the 5th best under team in the NBA (19-16, 54%). Both teams rank in the bottom third in offensive efficiency, with Houston 21st and Detroit 27th. Meanwhile, the Rockets rank 4th in defensive efficiency. Detroit will be without their top offensive weapon, Cade Cunningham (22.8 PPG), due to a knee injury. All three referees are considered “under” refs, with Brian Forte, James Williams and Brandon Adair cashing the under cashing between 51% and 56%, historically.
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies Under 224 (29% bets, 92% money)
This total opened at 228 and has plummeted to 224 despite the fact that 71% of bets are taking the over. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under. The under is only receiving 29% of bets but 92% of money, a whopping 63 percentage point smart money discrepancy. The Clippers are one of the slower teams in the NBA, ranking 21st overall in pace. Los Angeles also ranked 10th in defensive efficiency. On the other hand, the Grizzlies rank 29th in offensive efficiency, the second worst in the NBA. These are also two of the top three under teams in the NBA, with the Grizzlies second (22-15, 60%) and the Clippers third (21-15, 58%). The Grizzlies will be without several key offensive weapons, including Marcus Smart (14.5 PPG), Santi Aldama (10.4 PPG) and Ja Morant (25.1 PPG), who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. We’ve also seen this line move toward the Clippers -7.5 to -9. This movement correlates to the under as a bigger favorite tends to get out to a big lead and then take their foot off the gas in the second half of a blowout.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
