Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

The Cincinnati Reds (64-59) welcome the Toronto Blue Jays (67-56) to Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 1-0.

The Reds beat the Blue Jays 1-0 to open the 3-game series up Friday. Cincinnati has won 5 of its last 9 but lost 6 in a row before those 9. The Reds sit 2nd in the NL Central. Cincinnati is 31-32 at home this season.

The Blue Jays are 35-29 on the road and have a .545 win percentage but still sit 3rd in the AL East, 8 games behind the Baltimore Orioles. Toronto has won just 4 of its last 10 games.

Blue Jays at Reds projected starters

RHP Chris Bassitt vs. LHP Brandon Williamson

Bassitt (11-6, 3.95 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 145 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K in a 6-5 home loss against the Chicago Cubs Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 5-4, 5.19 ERA in 69 1/3 IP through 13 starts

Williamson (4-2, 4.33 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 81 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K in a 4-2 road loss over the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday
• 2023 home stats: 2-1, 3.97 ERA in 45 1/3 IP through 8 starts

Blue Jays at Reds odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Blue Jays at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Blue Jays 4

BET REDS (+120).

Cincinnati has been one of the streakiest teams in the MLB, and it is 37-26 following a victory. The Reds are also 19-21 straight up as a home underdog, which is the top half of the league in win percentage.

Cincinnati is also a league-best 19-11 in non-league games, which this is. The Blue Jays are 47-39 as a favorite as well which ranks in the bottom half of the league in terms of win percentage.

The Reds need to win to keep a playoff berth possible and should win at home, especially given Bassitt’s struggles on the road. Take REDS (+120).

PASS.

The value is on Cincinnati on the moneyline, and the Reds at +1.5 (-135) is a little too much juice compared to them to winning outright.

Similarly, the Blue Jays are just 33-53 on the run line as a favorite and aren’t worth a play at their current value. Ultimately pass on this total and play the Reds to win outright.

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LEAN UNDER 10 (-115).

The Reds have gone Under in Williamson’s last 2 starts, and they have gone Under in 3 straight games. Cincinnati has also gone Under in 11 of its last 13 games.

Toronto has gone Under in 2 of its last 3 and is 49-68-6 O/U on the season. It has gone Under in 3 of the last 9 starts for Bassitt as well. Considering the trends for both teams take UNDER 10 (-115).

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