Red Wings vs Islanders Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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12 September 2023

The Red Wings' offense hasn't exactly been killing it, so against all-world goaltender Ilya Sorokin, our NHL picks don't see the Islanders being tested much Friday night — read on to find out more!

Tonight’s NHL slate features an Eastern Conference tilt with the Metropolitan Division’s New York Islanders hosting the Atlantic Division’s Detroit Red Wings. New York is in desperate need of a win after dropping each of its last six games while Detroit tries to climb back into the playoff picture.

Will the Islanders grab a much-needed win, or can the Red Wings pull off the upset on the road? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Red Wings vs Islanders on Thursday, January 26.

Red Wings vs Islanders best odds

Red Wings vs Islanders picks and predictions

The New York Islanders have been involved in many low-scoring contests recently, with six or fewer total goals scored in 12 of their last 16 games. This trend is likely to continue with all-world goaltender Ilya Sorokin slated to take the crease tonight.

Through 37 appearances in the crease this season, Sorokin boasts a .922 save percentage (SV%) and 2.44 goals against average (GAA). Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue, as Sorokin ranks third among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

This stellar goaltending should continue against the Detroit Red Wings, a club Sorokin typically dominates. Over his last three appearances against Detroit, he boasts a .938 SV% and 2.38 GAA.

The Under hit in two of those three outings. However, Sorokin may not get much goal support, as the Islanders rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.

Since the Red Wings enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back, Magnus Hellberg is expected to start between the pipes for Detroit. We’re getting a generous total in this contest since the Red Wings are sporting a backup goaltender, but their defense should pick up the slack due to the fact that Detroit ranks in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

With that said, goal support will be in short order for Hellberg, as Detroit ranks third-to-last in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. The Red Wings’ lack of offensive efficiency is detrimental to their cause considering that they’re going against one of the world’s best netminders.

There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in eight of Detroit’s last 13 games, a trend that is likely to continue against Sorokin.

My best bet: Under 6 (-127 at BarStool)

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Red Wings vs Islanders moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Islanders moneyline, but the juice at –155 is too heavy considering that New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Sorokin on home ice against the lackluster Red Wings offense is enough to back the Islanders in this contest, but not at the asking price of –155.

On the other hand, it’s too difficult to back Detroit with its unpredictable offense against one of the world’s best netminders. The Islanders have won six of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, a trend that is likely to continue.

Red Wings vs Islanders Over/Under analysis

The main concern in taking the Under in this contest is New York’s blue line. At 5-on-5, the Islanders rank just 25th in the league in xGA/60.

With that said, Sorokin is no stranger to bailing out poor play in front of him. The Red Wings’ offense is extremely inefficient, and going on the road on the second half of a road back-to-back should go no differently.