Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Marlins (12-9) and Cleveland Guardians (10-11) meet Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch at Progressive Field is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-0

Miami and Cleveland were rained out Friday. The Marlins swept a Saturday twin bill (6-1, 3-2) and are 8-2 over their last 10 games.

The Guardians have lost 5 of their last 6. Cleveland has batted an anemic .196/.259/.270 (.528 OPS) over that stretch.

Marlins at Guardians projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP Logan Allen

Luzardo (2-0, 2.74 ERA) makes his 5th start of the season. He has registered a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 23 IP.

• Has allowed 6 runs on 14 hits in his last 10 1/3 IP
• Facing a Cleveland lineup that has struggled against southpaws (.635 OPS)
• Has been dinged by a .417 batting average on balls in play with runners in scoring position

Logan Allen is a 24-year-old making his Major League debut.

• Pitched well at Double-A last season (3.33 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) but poorly after a promotion to Triple-A (6.49 ERA, 1.57 WHIP)
• Pitched 14 1/3 IP at Triple-A in 2023: 2 ER, 10 H, 5 BB, 20 K

Marlins at Guardians odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.

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Marlins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Guardians 3

Luzardo gives the Fish an edge on the mound. And Allen was beaten up last month in Cactus League action (5 2/3 IP, 8 ER). With the bullpens, peg Miami’s as underrated by its surface stats. The opposite hold true for the Cleveland relievers.

The lefty-lefty matchup at the outset spells leverage for the playing-better-of-late Marlins. Miami owns a .756 OPS against southpaws; Cleveland’s OPS against lefties is a below-average .635.

The Fish are 5-1 in their last 6 road games, and the price here is worth a partial-unit play. BACK MIAMI (-105).

Both teams have been involved in a lot of 1-run games. On a cold day, with a low total, PASS on trying to get the Marlins clear by multiple runs.

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Both offenses are a bit undercooked so far, and that would lean us toward on Over, especially on this total. But a 40-something-degree day, a quality hurler starting for the visitors and an unknown quantity going for the home nine muddy the picture plenty.

STEER CLEAR.

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