Braves vs. Guardians prediction and odds for Monday, July 3
At 56-27 the Atlanta Braves don’t quite have the best record in baseball just yet, but they’re making their case as the best team in the MLB, and it’s an overwhelming one.
They have won eight straight games and 16 of their last 17 heading into this three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians are 41-42 following a series win over Chicago and are tied for first in the AL Central.
For Game 1, the Braves will go with Bryce Elder who is 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA on the year. Elder will be opposed by Gavin Williams who has a 2.84 ERA in two career starts.
It’s not surprise that the Braves are favorites even on the road in Cleveland.
Braves vs. Guardians odds, run line and total
Braves vs. Guardians prediction and pick
This is getting ridiculous with this Atlanta team. They have two win streaks of eight games in their last 17 games with one single loss splitting them.
In their first eight game win streak they scored 65 runs and allowed 26 then in this most recent streak they have scored 56 and given up just 22. Their offense was more the focus across the first stretch and now their pitching staff is stepping up to help.
However, today they may need to lean back on their bats again.
Bryce Elder has been great this year, but there’s a big difference between a great couple of months and a great season. Elder has a FIP of 3.79 with an expected ERA of 3.76. He is 32nd percentile in strikeout rate, league average in whiff rate and has a hard hit rate in the 34th percentile.
He doesn’t strikeout out many, he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, and he gets hit hard. To me that says there’s been some luck involved and when those hard hit balls find the grass instead of a well positioned defender, which they will, his ERA will climb.
Elder is the type of pitcher I’m ready to fade heading into the second half of the season, but I’m not betting against the Braves today. Instead, I’ll take the over because even if Cleveland scores 20 I think the Braves can get 21.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
