Braves vs. Phillies prediction: Pick, odds for Game 4 of NLDS in 2023 MLB playoffs
After a 10-2 romp in Game 3 on Wednesday, the Philadelphia Phillies are now just one win away from their second straight berth in the NLCS. They’ll host the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of this wild NLDS matchup on Thursday, October 12, with first pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is set for 6:07 p.m. ET. The Braves will turn to ace Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA) to keep their season alive, while Philly gives the ball to Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18).
Atlanta enters as -155 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Phillies are the +130 underdogs, and the run total is set at 8.5.
Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 4 picks: Wednesday, October 12
Injury report
Braves
Out: SP Charlie Morton (finger)
Phillies
N/A
Starting pitchers
Spencer Strider vs. Ranger Suarez
He didn’t get the run support required to wind up on the winning side, but Strider’s Game 1 performance surely exorcised some demons. He allowed two runs over seven strong inning while striking out eight, a marked improvement over the last time he faced the Phillies in the postseason. (Of course, now he has to do it in Philadelphia, the site of last year’s bat spike heard ‘round the world.) MLB’s strikeout king — he led the league with a whopping 281 Ks, 44 more than second-place Kevin Gausman — was largely brilliant this year, establishing himself as the best young pitcher in the game. He’s also brilliant against the Phillies this season, with a 2.42 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 26 innings across four regular-season starts. For as good as he’s been, though, his inflated 3.86 ERA points to his penchant for giving up the occasional crooked number, especially via the long ball — a dangerous game against a Philly team that just tied a playoff record with six homers in Game 3.
Suarez held down the fort well enough in Game 1, but he was also helped out by a Phillies bullpen that was rested and ready with all of its major weapons — a big reason why Rob Thomson felt comfortable pulling the lefty after 3.2 innings of one-run ball, relying on his relievers to cover the remaining 16 outs. With Matt Strahm, Seranthony Dominguez and Orion Kerkering throwing in yesterday’s win, Philly won’t have as many options to choose from, and will likely to have hope that Suarez gives them a little more depth. The lefty might be up for that task: He was solid this season — meaningless final start against the Pirates notwithstanding — and he was brilliant in his one start against the Braves, allowing just one run on four hits and two walks with seven Ks over six innings of work. He also boasts a healthy 80th-percentile ground ball rate, which will be helpful for keeping this Atlanta lineup in the ballpark. Suarez can be pretty streaky: When he’s locked in, he’s incredible — 1.08 ERA in May, 2.45 in July — but his feel can come and go.
Over/Under pick
The last time we saw this pitching matchup, there were just three total runs scored. Strider’s last postseason trip to Philly obviously looms large in people’s memories, but the righty has been sensational against this lineup all year, Game 1 included, and I expect him to pitch well again on Thursday night. With most of the Phillies main relief weapons — Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Craig Kimbrel — operating on multiple days rest, I think we’re in for another relatively low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
If I were simply picking this game straight-up, I’d probably give the edge to the Braves: They have the obvious pitching advantage, plus their backs against the wall in an elimination game. But I’m not picking straight-up, and there’s simply not enough juice on Atlanta to make them worth the risk. There’s a very real chance that the Braves lose here — they lost in this same matchup in Game 1, and Philly’s bullpen remains an almost-impossible nut to crack — and this is far closer to a coin flip than this line suggests. With the hotter offense, deeper bullpen and home crowd, I’ll take the Phils as home ‘dogs.
