Braves vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds

Covers

12 October 2023

It's do-or-die for the Braves as a loss to the Phillies tonight would send them home from the postseason early after an unbelievable regular season. Our betting picks look for Ronald Acuna Jr. to do the heavy lifting. See which market we're targeting.

Is this it for the Atlanta Braves? Tonight, the team from the Peach State faces a win-or-go-home situation when it faces off with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies struck early and often in Game 3 last night. Whether it was Bryce Harper's stare-downs and home runs or Nick Castellanos matching him — Philadelphia was putting up runs, bucking MLB odds in the process. Now, the Phils' stand just one game away from repeating an accomplishment of last season: defeating the prohibitive World Series odds favorite and advancing to a second straight NLCS.

What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and MLB playoff predictions for Thursday, October 12.

Braves vs Phillies odds

Braves vs Phillies Game 4 odds

Braves vs Phillies series odds

Braves vs Phillies predictions

Throughout handicapping this series, I have been challenged with a simple task: Figuring out how much to weigh a full season of data against what's been put in front of us this postseason. Tonight is no different. If we're looking at what we've seen throughout the season, the decision of which pitching to back here is simple: Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves.

Strider had a dominant year, flirted with the top of the Cy Young odds board, and was the ace on a team many presumed to be the best in baseball. His opposition, Ranger Suarez, had a rocky season. It was the worst full season (100+ innings) of his career. Now fast-forward to what we've seen in the postseason. There's not much separation between the two. Although he went just 3 2/3 innings, Suarez blanked the Braves in his first postseason start over the weekend.

On the other hand, Strider finished flat and ultimately gave up the runs that would give the Phillies the win. Faced with this dilemma, I'm choosing to pass on straight-up backing either pitcher. Instead, I will look at the prop market and place more validity on the regular season. I'm grabbing Over 1.5 bases for Ronald Acuna Jr.

If any pluses came out of last night, it felt like Acuna had gotten some confidence. He entered yesterday hitless through two playoff games and ended the night 2-for-4. Acuna heating up is a bad sign for Suarez as the presumptive NL MVP is second among Braves hitters in slugging percentage with double-digit plate appearances against Suarez. But more than that, Acuna's peripherals match up well with him.

The main struggle for Suarez this season has been finding too many bats. He's below average in whiff rate and slightly worse in expected batting average. I don't know anyone more well-suited to take advantage of that than Acuna. He is the most well-rounded hitter on the Atlanta roster by any definable metric. But wait, there's more.

Suarez throws a nice mix of the fastball and sinker, which will be music to Acuna's ears. He's first among Braves in run value against the sinker and third in hard-hit rate. Against the fastball? He rakes, of course. He's second in run value, Top 5 in hard-hit rate, and fourth in slugging percentage amongst a group of players that hit the fastball at a historic clip. Acuna is the most well-equipped player to take advantage of Suarez tonight.

Take Acuna to go Over his bases. He's the best player in baseball, and we're getting the chance to back him at plus money when his team needs him the most.

My best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)

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Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases

Ozzie Albies to get a hit

Spencer Strider 10+ strikeouts

We're riding our best bet in our same-game parlay with two other Braves plays.

The first of these is for Ozzie Albies to get a hit. Albies led the league this season in batting average against lefties. Along with that, he's one of the top fastball-hitting batters in the Braves lineup. That's a pitch he should see plenty of tonight.

The last of these is Strider to rack up double-digit strikeouts. I'm backing a few angles here, but one is pretty simple: Backing an ace to deliver when his team has their back against the wall. That trumps any other angle.

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Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I'm not betting on it. There isn't enough value, but I like the Braves tonight. My projections make Atlanta a -152 favorite, and that's closely aligned with the number we've gotten from oddsmakers.

I can't shake how decisive of a pitching mismatch this is. Strider has undoubtedly had his issues this season, and we've documented them heavily. However, they pale in comparison to some of Suarez's struggles. Atlanta just finished a season where they ranked first in wRC+ and on-base percentage against lefties.

Although Suraez has only allowed one combined run in two combined starts against Atlanta, much of the data suggests those are outliers rather than the norm. Those two performances have probably made this number closer. Without them, you're looking at around a -165 price. The Braves are great at sending this to a decisive Game 5.

I only have a little of a feel for the total in this one. We've seen two games go over, but they were mostly because one team did the heavy lifting. That's the mark of the last 10 games between the two going Over at a 60% clip. This market is a complete pass for me, but if forced to choose, I look at the Braves team total of 2.5 live at -120 or better.

Trend to know

The Phillies have defeated the Braves in three of the last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA): Although he's unlikely to win, Strider certainly made his case for the Cy Young. He led the league in K-rate and regularly posted bananas strikeout numbers. Strider has been a dominant pitcher in the regular season but remains winless in the postseason throughout his admittedly brief career. That's a streak he'll be aiming to break tonight.

Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA): Making 23 starts and getting decisions in less than half of them illustrates what we've seen from Suarez. He won't typically kill you but don't expect him to win the game for you often. It's important to note that the left-hander has made six postseason career starts and has yet to lose in any of them, but he's been on a pretty short leash.