Brock Purdy NFL Player Props, Odds Divisional Round: Predictions for Packers vs. 49ers

Quarterback Brock Purdy leads the NFC favorite San Francisco 49ers into their first playoff game against the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers, and we offer our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Of the eight starting quarterbacks remaining in the playoffs, San Francisco 49ers signal-caller Brock Purdy is the only one who was not a first-round draft pick. However, he will likely receive MVP votes after leading the 49ers to a 12-5 record and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

San Francisco does not come into the playoffs with the best momentum, however, losing back-to-back home games for the first time since 2021. Despite that, the 49ers have the shortest Super Bowl odds from our best sports betting appsSuper Bowl predictions.

Purdy faces a Packers team that became the first No. 7 seed to win a playoff game (now 1-7 SU) in the four years of the new playoff format. Green Bay’s dominating 48-32 win over the Dallas Cowboys was its first playoff victory since 2020, and Jordan Love became the first quarterback in franchise history to not only lead his team to the playoffs in his first season as a starter but win a playoff start in that season. 

To accompany our NFL Divisional Round predictions and our Packers vs. 49ers prediction, here are our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for the Packers vs. 49ers Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for the Divisional Round

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Brock Purdy player props

Brock Purdy Under 264.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Purdy was in the MVP conversation for much of the regular season after leading the league in yards per attempt (9.6), yards per dropback (8.8), yards per completion (13.9), EPA per dropback (0.26), and throwing for a franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,280). He has thrown for 265-plus yards in eight of 16 starts this season — but none of the last three — and the projected weather in San Francisco on Saturday night suggests head coach Kyle Shanahan should lean more heavily on the running game.

There is an 80% chance of rain in the Bay Area on Saturday night, with wind gusts up to 15 mph. Purdy had one of his worst games in a rain-soaked regular season game at Cleveland, averaging a season-low 4.6 yards per attempt and posting his second-lowest QBR (38.7) of the season. 

This is our most confident five-star play, as San Francisco had an NFL-best 74 running plays of 10-plus yards, and Green Bay’s defense ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed after first contact (906) and 23rd in yards per rush (4.4), per ESPN’s Stephen Holder. Thus, we expect the 49ers to lean on the running game, especially with running back Christian McCaffrey healthy, which will significantly lower Purdy’s ceiling for passing yards. 

Our other best sportsbooks with an O/U of 264.5 have the Under juiced to -115 or higher, while FanDuel offers a slightly worse number of 263.5.

Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Green Bay did many things right last week against Dallas, but the game was more-or-less salted away early after a second-quarter pick-six of Dak Prescott, one of two interceptions the Packers had on the day. 

For as much as Purdy has done right this season, he has also committed 13 turnovers, 11 of them via interceptions. Green Bay has scored 30-plus points in three of the previous four weeks, so the Packers will likely keep enough game pressure on San Francisco to force Purdy into some errant throws. The Packers rank ninth in sack percentage and sixth in pressure percentage, per SportRadar, and Purdy has been picked off in six of his previous 11 games, making the cheap -105 odds for him to throw at least one interception at BetMGM seem like a steal. 

The Over on 0.5 interceptions is juiced as high as -114 at BetRivers, so Over backers should be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS!

Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Purdy has -177 odds to throw more passing touchdowns in this game than Jordan Love, which seems like lofty odds considering Love has 21 touchdown passes in his previous eight games. However, we cannot help but take a stab with a three-star play that Purdy will be held to one or fewer passing touchdowns despite him becoming the first 49ers quarterback to throw 30-plus touchdown passes (31) since 2001.

Even though Purdy left last year’s NFC Championship Game early with an elbow injury, he has not thrown a single touchdown pass in his previous two playoff games. And while the 49ers have the No. 1 passing offense and rank No. 1 in EPA per play (0.16 better than the No. 2 team), they also love to run the ball when close to the goal line. McCaffrey had at least one rushing touchdown in 11 of 16 games, and Elijah Mitchell added a rushing touchdown in each of the final two weeks of the regular season.

This may seem like a bet designed to double down on the Under on Purdy’s passing yards prop, but it may be the smart play, as the game script could cause Purdy to throw even less late (San Francisco is a 10-point favorite); especially if the 49ers build their lead by running the football. FanDuel has the shortest odds for this market at +146, so the +165 odds at bet365 are a steal in comparison.

Brock Purdy player prop picks made Thursday at 6:31 a.m. ET.

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