NFC Divisional Round Buccaneers vs. Lions game odds, player props, analysis, and predictions

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Few expected to see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions battle in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, which has elevated the intrigue. Including the wild-card victory over the Rams, the Lions are 7-2 at Ford Field this season, while the Bucs carry a 5-4 road record into Detroit.

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The Bucs’ confidence is soaring ahead of Sunday’s colossal contest. They have won six of their previous seven, including last week’s 32-9 thrashing of the banged-up, forlorn Eagles. Tampa has also won its last three road games. While their current hot streak will have Tampa’s players believing they can pull off the upset in Detroit, some worrying trends exist in the team’s play on the road.

The Bucs’ defense ranks 26th in completion percentage, 26th in yards per attempt, and 29th in total QBR on enemy territory. Compare that to the Lions’ 4th-ranked completion percentage, 6th-ranked yards per attempt, and 6th-ranked total QBR at Ford Field.

Those defensive stats become more worrying when you look at who the Bucs have beaten on the road. They are 3-0 against teams that finished with losing records, beating the Panthers, Falcons, and Vikings. Conversely, Tampa is 2-4 against winning teams.

In regards to scoring, the Bucs scored four more points per game (23) but allowed three more on the road (21).

The Lions found a way to secure a one-point victory over the Rams in last week’s wild-card round. While their palpably susceptible secondary allowed 357 passing yards and bent for large portions of the game, it did not break, preventing the Rams from converting in the red zone on three opportunities.

Scoring 30 points per game on home turf, the Lions dominated proceedings at Ford Field for most of the campaign, with their only losses coming to Green Bay and Seattle in overtime. The Lions are fifth in offense DVOA (13.8%) and had the league’s second-best passing attack during the regular season, averaging 258.9 yards per game.

Sunday’s combatants played at Raymond James Stadium in Week 6, with the Lions winning 20-6 in a defensive battle. Expect heaps more scoring at Ford Field on Sunday, with the Lions winning and covering.

Analytics aside, the Lions’ players understand acutely how much this means to the city and themselves. As long as they find a way to harness the heightened nerves and emotions, they should progress to their first NFC Championship since 1991 on sheer desire.

The idyllic indoor conditions combined with a matchup featuring two teams that can put up some points has Sunday’s contest leaning towards the over. While the Bucs’ offense has endured a wildly inconsistent campaign, it has found its groove lately, scoring at least 29 points in four of the last six contests.

Tampa Bay’s paltry nine-point output in Week 18 in Carolina was an outlier. It can be attributed to Baker Mayfield’s injured ribs and the Panthers’ air-tight pass defense, which ranked third overall. Before that infamous snoozer, Tampa Bay scored 34 in Green Bay and 29 in Atlanta in two previous road encounters.

In addition, the Lions are prolific at Ford Field, scoring 30 points per game while allowing 22. Four of the previous five games at Ford Field eclipsed 49 points, with the only exception being last week’s 47-point wild-card game. Moreover, both teams have porous secondaries, conducive to an aerial bombardment for both quarterbacks and a swollen scoreline.

Rookie sensation Sam LaPorta injured his knee in Week 18 and was questionable for last week’s game against the Rams. With the aid of a clunky, cumbersome knee brace, LaPorta persevered through the pain, scoring a touchdown but only amassing 14 receiving yards.

Expect that number to significantly increase against Tampa Bay. While still sore, LaPorta’s knee is in much better shape. The dynamic and athletic tight end had at least 47 receiving yards in six of eight home contests during the regular season and is playing against a Bucs’ defense that allowed 61.6 yards per contest to opposing tight ends, the league’s third most.

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