Bucks vs. Nuggets prediction, odds: Doc Rivers' Milwaukee debut

Doc Rivers will make his debut as Bucks head coach when Milwaukee visits the Nuggets on Monday night. 

Although both teams are tied for the second-most wins in the league with 32, their backers probably haven’t been too impressed with their performance at the betting window.

The Nuggets (19-26-2, -8.78 units) and Bucks (18-28, -11.6 units) rank 26th and 27th in profitability against the spread this season. As a result, this is a matchup in which I’m not particularly keen to back either side.

However, the total does offer some promise after opening as high as 240.5 before being bet down in the market. 

In this preview, I’ll share why I agree with the move and my projection for the game.

There are several reasons why the Bucks ultimately decided to part ways with Adrian Griffin after just 43 games, despite posting a 30-13 mark, but the short answer is that he lost the locker room and never fully gained the trust of his star players.

For one, the Bucks struggled to establish the defensive identity that had become a big part of their success in recent years.

It didn’t help that the organization traded away Jrue Holiday, a three-time All-Defensive First Team player, but Bucks players were befuddled with Griffin’s strategy to transition away from the drop-coverage defense that highlighted Brook Lopez’s strengths at the center position.

Former head coach Mike Budenholzer implemented the scheme when Lopez needed to evolve his all-around game because he was no longer the focal point of a team’s offense. Lopez fully bought in, re-energizing his career as an invaluable piece on the Bucks’ roster.

However, instead of dropping to defend the paint on pick-and-roll screens and avoid switching on to smaller, quicker players, Griffin wanted Lopez to be more aggressive and almost attack the ball-handlers, taking him farther away from the basket, which allowed opposing players to slip in and attack the vacated space.

There are many other examples of Griffin clashing with Bucks players in a season where they rank 20th in defensive efficiency after finishing fourth in 2022-23.

One of Rivers’ first comments to his new team was that their opponents should be “more afraid” to play them. His first task as the Bucks’ new coach will be to rebuild that defensive identity.

While the Nuggets are still a team that takes pride in their defense, they use their pace of play to control the games.

Per TeamRankings, the Nuggets are last in tempo, averaging 100 possessions per game.

When you combine their pace with a defense that ranks 11th in efficiency (111 points allowed per 100 possessions), you can understand why the Nuggets are the most profitable team (29-17-1, +9.45 units) for under bettors.

In the modern game, you must guard the perimeter to be a good defensive team. Not only do the Nuggets limit opponents to 11.3 3-point field goals per game, but they also rank third in opponent 3-point attempts (31.3 per game).

Thus, Denver tends to sell out on the perimeter if it means opponents will settle for 2-point field goals.

Moreover, by limiting the possessions in their games, the Nuggets can take advantage of their efficiency within an offensive that ranks sixth in turnovers per game (12.7).

Denver’s ability to take care of the ball provides an edge against opposing teams, particularly in the clutch moments of a game. The NBA defines these clutch spots as moments when the scoring margin is within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining in the fourth quarter or overtime. 

In this spot, the Nuggets have the second-most wins in the league with a 16-8 mark.

It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a bit of an adjustment period with the Bucks and their new coach. 

However, I suspect the first thing Rivers will want to see from his players is a defensive intensity. The good news is Milwaukee is a player-led team that wants to hold itself accountable. 

As a result, I don’t expect this to be a more competitive game defensively, with this game finishing under the total.

The total is 2-0 to the under this season in Nuggets’ games with an opening total of 240 or more points.

If we look at the league as a whole, the under is 56-43-1 when an opening total of 240 or more points was bet down.

With my model projecting a total closer to 230 points, I’m getting a good price on the under of 238.5 at BetRivers.

Pick: Under 238.5 (-110, BetRivers)