Raptors vs. Lakers picks and odds: Fade Toronto and scoring
A lengthy stretch of road matchups comes to an end for the Toronto Raptors tonight as they face the Los Angeles Lakers out west.
The pregame narrative: Friday marks Toronto’s seventh road game in its past eight games overall, and so far the Raps are just 2-4 in those recent showings away from Scotiabank Arena. We’re fading the Raptors and their offence tonight against the Lakers.
NBA odds as of 9:05 a.m. on 03/10/2023.
Raptors vs. Lakers picks
Best Bet: Lakers moneyline (-103)
It’s been a long road (literally) for the Raptors over the past two-plus weeks, and we aren’t foreseeing a happy ending.
Accounting for all road games since Feb. 25, which is when this stretch began, here’s how the Raptors rank against the rest of the league:
- -6.3 net rating (21st)
- 47.8% rebound percentage (17th)
- 49.0% effective field goal percentage (27th)
It’s been pretty ugly, which explains why Toronto’s only road wins in that span came against the Pistons (worst record in the NBA) and in OT against the Wizards (10th in the East).
On the other side of things, it’s never easy to back L.A. sans LeBron James. But the Lakers are coming off a pair of home wins in his absence — as underdogs — and they’ve had an extra night of rest compared to the Raptors.
New additions like Jarred Vanderbilt, D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley have helped improve the Lakers’ fortunes, and we expect that to continue. Russell has missed six games in a row with an ankle injury, but he’s expected to return tonight.
Key stat: Since the trade deadline, the Lakers have a 2.0 net rating (12th in the NBA). Prior to that, their minus-1.0 net rating ranked 24th.
Quick picks
Raptors under 112.5 points (-112): As noted above, the Raptors’ offence has been nightmarish in this recent slew of road games. That makes them a good bet to fade on Friday.
Toronto is averaging just 104.2 points per game in its past six road games, falling under this line four times. In its two instances of hitting the over, one was cleared by half a point and the other was aided by OT.
The Lakers have held their past five road foes under 112.5 points.
Under 225 points (-114): Unless you expect a scoring explosion from the LeBron-less Lakers (and we don’t), fading offence as a whole in this game makes sense.
We’ve already made our case on Toronto’s side, and the Raptors have pushed or gone under this total in six of their past eight games.
L.A. has gone under this total in four of its past six, averaging 111.7 points on offence in that span.
