Caesar's Better Bettor: As Cardinals crumble, odds against them soar in sportsbooks

What a difference a month makes.

Four weeks ago, the Cardinals were on the verge of their season opener and hopes were high for a big year. Although few offseason moves had been made, the team had what looked like a strong core and despite some lingering questions the Redbirds were the solid favorite to win the National League Central Division title.

But the club has tumbled out of the gate, entering the weekend with the third-worst winning percentage in the league and planted in the Central basement. They stayed in step with that trend Friday, squandering an early lead and being routed 7-3 by the Dodgers to fall to 0-9 in opening games of a series.

The stinky start has had a significant impact on the Cardinals’ betting odds, as many elements have taken a major hit. To start, outfielder Jordan Walker began the season as either the favorite, or second favorite, to win National League Rookie of the Year honors at the three St. Louis area walk-in sportsbooks — Barstool (Argosy) in Alton, FanDuel in Collinsville and DraftKings in East St. Louis.

How is that working out? Walker was demoted to Triple A this week.

The preseason odds on him winning the award were +400 at Argosy and FanDuel (a successful $100 bet would reap a $400 profit) and +360 at DraftKings. But as of Friday the return had soared to +2000 at DraftKings and +2500 at FanDuel, though the number was just +850 at Argosy.

That big variance yet again shows the importance of shopping around. The difference in potential payout is stark for someone bold enough to bet on a player who isn’t even on a big-league roster but still has big things expected of him this year at the major-league level. The profit on a $100 bet a Argosy would be $850. At FanDuel it would be $2,500.

That big rise in odds on Walker at two of those books is a microcosm of the way things have gone for those who backed the Cardinals in the preseason futures betting markets. Let’s take a deeper look:

The Cards were odds-on favorites — meaning less than even money — to win the NL Central crown at all three books, ranging from -125 at DraftKings ($125 had to have been put up to try to win $100), -129 at Argosy and -130 at FanDuel.

My how things have changed. As of Friday afternoon the Birds were as high as +325, at Argosy, to roost atop the Central at season’s end. But the bookies still think their customers aren’t sold on most of the division’s other teams. Despite all of them being ahead of the Cardinals heading into the weekend, only Milwaukee had lower odds than the Birds (ranging from -120 to -143 for the Brewers). Current division leader Pittsburgh’s odds were as high as +900, at Argosy.

The Cards’ odds to win the NL pennant ranged from +750 at DraftKings to +1000 at FanDuel and Argosy just before the season started. As of Friday, the number had climbed to as high as +1300, at DraftKings.

Their preseason odds to win the World Series were +2200 at Argosy, +2000 at FanDuel and +1600 at DraftKings. But as of Friday, they were up to +2800 at DraftKings and no lower than +2400 at the other two books.

It has been so bad that the Cards, who were a heavy preseason favorite to make the playoffs (-235 at DraftKings), now are significantly favored to miss the postseason (-145 at DK). In layman’s terms, a bettor in late March risking $235 would make a profit of just $100 if they make the playoffs. Now, a gambler would have to put up $145 to turn a $100 profit if they want to bet on the team not making the playoffs.

City stumbles

St. Louis City SC was vastly outplayed last week but nonetheless took a 1-0 lead late into its Major League Soccer match in suburban Denver. However, an added-time goal by the home team resulted in the match ending in a 1-1 tie and stinging those who had backed City at the betting windows.

The team had been a significant underdog on the three-way line, which includes the option of the game ending in a draw as well as choosing either team to win. Had City held on, those who wagered on them would have made $250 for each $100 they risked if they had placed that bet at Argosy on the afternoon before the game. That shop had the most favorable line available then among the area walk-in sportsbooks.

But the tie ended up being a loser for those City three-way line bettors, which is the first time all season that the team has played to a draw.

Still, someone wagering $100 on City to win each of its nine MLS matches and using the three-way line would be up $1,077. That’s based on using the most favorable odds as of Friday afternoons at the local shops. The team is 6-2-1 and has been an underdog in most of its games.

This week, City SC entertains Portland at 7:30 p.m. Saturday and finds itself as the favorite for one of the few times thus far. Argosy had the most favorable Friday line, -118.

However, City is without its top offensive player, Klaus, is 1-2-1 in its last three matches and will be facing a team that will be trying to avenge its 2-1 loss to City last month in Oregon. Portland was as high as +295 (at DraftKings) on the three-way line.

The battle’s over

The Battlehawks’ season ended last weekend, much to the disappointment of their rabid fan base — as well as those who wagered on them last winter to win the XFL title.

Two of the three area books had the B-hawks as the preseason favorite to wear the crown, and the other had them as the third choice.

The two-round playoffs begin this weekend, with Seattle at D.C. and Arlington at Houston. D.C. is the clear title favorite after rolling to a 9-1 regular-season record. The Defenders were even money to win the championship as of Friday at DraftKings and +110 at Argosy (FanDuel did not have a title line).

Title odds on the other teams:

Houston (7-3 record): +200 at DraftKings, +210 at Argosy.

Seattle (7-3 record): +250 at DraftKings, +225 at Argosy.

Arlington (4-6 record): +1200 at DraftKings, +1000 at Argosy