Caesar's Better Bettor: Blues' season has been over, from wagering angle, for a long time

The St. Louis Blues’ highly disappointing season ends next Thursday. But from a betting perspective, their season has been “over” for a long time.

For over-backers, the team’s on-ice woes have led to a betting bonanza — Blues games consistently have exceeded the wagering number for the total number of goals scored in their games.

Per Action Network, 47 of the Blues’ 79 games to date have gone “over” the posted betting total, and 29 have gone “under.” The three others have been pushes (ties), in which the bet is refunded. So the over has cashed 62% of the time the bets have counted.

Before the Blues went under in their last two games, including a 3-2 overtime victory Thursday night against the New York Rangers, they had gone over six consecutive times.

All that scoring leads to entreating games for casual fans, but such a wide-open style not only is frustrating for the goalies but generally is a common bond among the league’s poorer teams.

Eight NHL clubs have gone over at least six more times than they have gone under this season, and only two of them (Edmonton and Florida) are on track to make the playoffs. Joining the Blues on the also-ran list: Vancouver, San Jose, Buffalo, Columbus, and Arizona.

The Blues next play Saturday, at 7 p.m. in Minnesota, and the early over-under line on that one is 6 1/2.

St. Louis City SC streak ends

St. Louis City SC‘s remarkable run ended last weekend when the St. Louis entry in Major League Soccer suffered its first loss after five victories. That run had set the MLS record for consecutive wins to begin a season by an MLS expansion team.

Before that, those who had bet $100 on City to win each of those five matches and had done so at the sportsbook that had the most favorable odds among the three walk-in betting parlors in the area were ahead by $1,247. That figure is for wagers on the three-way line, which includes a tie being a betting choice in addition to a price on each team to win.

The team was favored last week, for just the second time, and lost 1-0 at home to Minnesota. The best line last week on City was at Argosy, where City was -129. (That means $129 would have to be risked on City to try to win $100, whereas a $100 bet if City had won would have returned a profit of $77.52. But neither happened.) So a $100 City bettor now is up $1,147.

City hits the road this week to play in Seattle, at 9:30 p.m. CT on Saturday and is a significant underdog. As of Friday afternoon, the best odds locally were +410 at Argosy (Alton).

College basketball betting

The college basketball season ended Monday night when Connecticut emerged from the longshot-laden Final Four. The Huskies, whose preseason odds to claim the title were 75-1, had the second-lowest opening price of the teams that made it to Houston. San Diego State, the school UConn beat, was the only one lower, and it still would have been a big payday at 60-1 had the Aztecs won.

The odds for next year’s winner already have been posted with UConn, Duke, Kentucky and Kansas among the favorites. But if you’re looking for another longshot, the major conference teams in this region certainly qualify.

Here’s a look at where they stand at the area’s walk-in books:

Upcoming picks

To be blunt, the picks in this space have nosedived recently. We were 0-2 last week and dropped seven units, leaving us 44-46 since the start of the football season and minus 20 units (selections can range from one • to five •••••).

Smart bettors know it’s good to take a break when the tide rolls out to sea. This slump certainly qualifies. Also, this column is written Friday, and at this time of year, few weekend games have odds already posted — with the college football and basketball seasons as well as the NFL campaign being done. So that will lead to a slowdown in selections in this space until the schedule picks up.

Sure, there will be some picks occasionally, but not necessarily weekly. We had some really good seasons when picking NFL games for many years, but the going currently has been rough. It’s time to take a break.