Caesar's Better Bettor: All Final Four teams had preseason odds of 60-1 or bigger to win
It certainly doesn’t shape up as a banner Final Four from a television ratings standpoint, but it sure is interesting from a betting perspective.
All the men’s basketball teams reaching the NCAA Tournament national semifinals (San Diego State, Connecticut, Miami and Florida Atlantic) had preseason odds of at least 60-1 to win the crown. It sure has been a bloodbath at the betting windows for backers of the bluebloods other than UConn. And although the Huskies have won the tourney title four times in the last quarter century, they certainly don’t carry the traditional oomph of programs such as North Carolina, Kansas, Duke and UCLA.
For the first time since seeding began in 1979, no team seeded better than fourth has made it to the Final Four.
Caesars Sportsbook has said that a bettor in Illinois will make $800,000 if Florida Atlantic wins the tourney, after placing three $100 bets on the Owls when the odds were 2,500-1 in December before making another $100 wager when the odds were 500-1.
Per Action Network, these are the odds movements on the Final Four teams via the FanDuel sportsbook:
Preseason: +250000 (250-1)
After bracket set: +12000
Betting talk leaves airwaves
The spread of legalized sports betting across the country in recent years, including in Illinois but not Missouri, has created a big ancillary business of media coverage of that wagering world.
One of the most prominent outlets in that field is Vegas Stats & Information Network (which brands itself as “VSiN, The Sports Betting Network) and is a multimedia company that provides digital, audio and video programming. It is based in Las Vegas and was launched in 2017 with legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger as the face of the business that was the brainchild of his nephew Brian Musburger and employed several other family members. It was sold to sports betting behemoth DraftKings in 2021.
A little less than a year and a half ago VSiN’s round-the-clock programming began airing in the St. Louis market, on WGNU (920 AM and 104.5 FM). But the network recently disappeared from those stations, just before the start of the betting-rich NCAA Tournament, and was replaced by a “rock and Americana music” format.
Bill Moir is the market manager for East Central Broadcasting, which recently bought WGNU’s AM signal. He said the switch was made as part of a complex series of moves the company is making regarding licensing of numerous stations in the region that are under its umbrella. But he said the odds heavily favor VSiN eventually returning to the local airwaves.
“I have a great relationship with the owners of VSiN, and I will bring them back on the air in St. Louis,” Moir said, adding that nothing is imminent. “It probably will be next year before it happens. It’s hard to forecast when you’re moving signals around.”
City cashes — again
City SC, the local entry in Major League Soccer, has been returning significant profits to those who have been betting on the team — although not as massive as will be the cashout for those who made preseason bets on the school that wins the NCAA Tournament.
The return on investment nonetheless has been potent for those who have backed City on the three-way line thus far. (That includes a tie being a betting choice in addition to a price on each team to win.)
City is 5-0-0, the best five-game start for an MLS expansion club, and has been the underdog in four of those matches. It was a heavy ’dog last week when it played Real Salt Lake in Utah, with the best price locally among the three area sportsbooks being +265 at DraftKings. City rolled to a 4-0 victory, meaning those who bet $100 on it at that price made a profit of $265.
Those who have wagered $100 on the club in each of its five games, at the best odds available among the area sportsbooks, now are ahead by $1,247.
City is in the favorite’s role this week, for just the second time, but it’s not by a lot. As of Friday afternoon, Argosy had the best three-way line price (-129) among the local books for those wanting to back the club in its home match against Minnesota at 7:30 p.m. Saturday.
Upcoming picksWe were 1-3 last week to stand at 44-44. We dropped four units, leaving us minus 13 since the beginning of the football season (selections can range from one • to five •••••). This week’s choices, using the odds that were most favorable Friday afternoon among the area’s sportsbooks (Argosy, in Alton, DraftKings, in East St. Louis plus FanDuel, in Collinsville):
Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State, 5:09 p.m. Saturday in Houston: Yup, this really is a Final Four matchup, not part of some early-season tourney in some remote outpost. SDSU loves to slow the temp, work the shot clock and play tight defensively, and that will be the Aztecs’ game plan here. The Owls, meanwhile, like a faster pace but can play the slower style — as evidenced by their 62-55 victory over Tennessee earlier in the tourney. Add the fact that the Final Four is being held in a football facility, NRG Stadium, where sight lines are out of whack from what players are used to. While they eventually should adjust, we expect a low-scoring first half.
First half under 60.5 points (FanDuel) •••
Miami vs. Connecticut, 7:49 p.m. Saturday in Houston: Once these teams get adjusted to the football stadium, they should be able to put on an offensive show — quite the opposite of the lead-in game. Miami has averaged 87 points in its last three outings, and UConn has scored at least 82 in three of its last four contests.
Game total over 149 (Argosy, DraftKings) ••••
