Caesar's Better Bettor: Odds say Blues have better chance of winning Cup than division title

The Blues' recent surge has lowered the odds of them making the postseason field, but they still remain longshots to get in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

If they do qualify for the postseason, it likely would be as a wild-card entrant. In fact, the odds of the Blues winning the Central Division title are so huge that the area’s legal walk-in sportsbooks would pay more for a wager on that than they would for a bet on them skating away with the league championship.

After winning three of their first four games in December after Craig Berube was fired and replaced by interim coach Drew Bannister, the Blues still were a longshot to make the playoffs. On Dec. 22 a bettor would have had to risk $500 to try to turn a $100 profit on them not qualifying for the postseason field, whereas a successful $100 wager on them getting into the playoffs would have been worth a $380 profit.

As we sit now at the All-Star break, with the Blues having won five of their last six contests and clinging to the second (and final) wild-card playoff slot in the NHL's Western Conference, a successful $100 wager placed at DraftKings (Casino Queen in East St. Louis) on them making the postseason field would return a $220 profit — $140 less than if had it been made two weeks earlier. Conversely, a bettor now would have to risk $280 to try to win $100 on them failing to reach the postseason, $220 less than two weeks ago.

Argosy (casino in Alton) now has the Blues getting in at +225 and them not advancing at -295. The other legal walk-in book in the area, FanDuel (horse track in Collinsville) currently has the most favorable price locally of the Note skating in the playoffs: +240. That shop did not offer a bet on them not making the tourney. 

Then the bookies' numbers say the Blues have a much better chance to win the Stanley Cup than they do to claim the Central Division title. That's reasonable, because they not only trail division-leading Colorado by 13 points, but two other teams also are ahead of them. So if they do get in the playoffs, the road statistically would be smoother on the path to the league crown than are the chances of the Blues getting into the tourney by climbing to the Central crown.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have the Blues at 250-1 to win their division and Argosy is at 200-1, whereas their Cup-hoisting price ranges from 150-1 at DraftKings to is 130-1 at FanDule and 100-1 at Argosy.

These differences in payouts, as usual, emphasize the importance of shopping around if you are considering making a wager.

Basketball blahs

It has been well-documented that the major college basketball programs of greatest interest in the St. Louis area are experiencing putrid seasons. Missouri is winless in Southeastern Conference play and is 8-13 overall. St. Louis University also is in last place with its 1-7 record in Atlantic 10 action. The Billikens, like the Tigers are 8-13 overall.

Not only have those teams been miserable on the floor, they also have been money burners at the betting windows.

According to actionnetwork.com, a sports-betting website, Mizzou is 5-16 against the point spread and an awful 2-12 against the number at home. SLU is a little better but still subpar — 8-12 overall and 5-6 at home.

Among all the Division I teams in the region, SIU Carbondale is the best at the betting windows. The Salukis, who are 14-8 on the floor, are 14-7 against the spread and 9-5 vs. the number at home. Next comes Illinois (16-5), which is 13-7-1 versus the line and 7-6-1 against it at home.

• Missouri State (13-9): 12-10 vs. spread including 7-4 at home. 

• SIU Edwardsville (13-9): 10-9 vs. spread including 5-4 at home.

• Lindenwood (8-15): 8-12 vs. spread including 2-5 at home.

• Southeast Missouri (7-15): 3-13-2 vs. the spread including 1-5-1 at home.

Super start

The spread on the Super Bowl, in which the Kansas City Chiefs will meet the San Francisco 49ers a week from Sunday in Las Vegas, opened shortly after the matchup was set with the Niners favored by 2½ points at many sportsbooks.

That's where it was as of Friday afternoon at FanDuel, although San Francisco was -2 at the two other local sportsbooks. The over/under (number of points the teams will combine to score) was 47½ at all three houses.

Money line wagering also is available, which is betting on which team wins the game without the pointspread being involved. Those prices:

• Argosy: San Francisco -129, Kansas City +107.

• DraftKings: San Francisco -120, Kansas City even money.

• FanDuel: San Francisco -130, Kansas City +110.

Prop kings

Many sportsbooks have, or will have, a plethora of betting propositions available on the Super Bowl. But the long-reigning king of these kind of prop wagers, the SuperBook at the Westgate casino in Las Vegas, has posted its long list of options.