Cardinals vs Mariners Prediction, Picks, Odds

Luis Castillo has been a bully on the mound this year, and with the Cardinals' bats struggling against righties this season, our MLB picks are predicting another smooth sail for the Mariners ace.

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The Seattle Mariners snapped their three-game skid Friday night and will look to clinch a series win over the St. Louis Cardinals in the second meeting of a three-game set.

Luis Castillo takes the mound for Seattle as he looks to continue his dominant start to the season, having given up just two runs through his first four appearances.

Can Castillo help Seattle pick up its second straight win? We’ll discuss in our Cardinals vs Mariners MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, April 22.

Cardinals vs Mariners odds

Cardinals vs Mariners predictions

The Mariners cruised to a 5-2 win in the series opener on Friday courtesy of a strong start from George Kirby, who scattered three hits and two earned runs over six innings of work. AJ Pollock and Jarred Kelenic took care of most of the offense, knocking in two RBI apiece.

The win helped Seattle snap a three-game skid as the Mariners were just swept by the Brewers while being outscored 18-11 in that series.

Fortunately for Seattle, Luis Castillo will get the ball tonight, which has basically been a guaranteed win for the Mariners so far this season. The right-hander is 2-0 through his first four starts of the season while surrendering just 11 hits and two earned runs in total. Six of those hits and both runs came in his April 10 start against the Cubs, so Castillo has been virtually untouchable outside of that game.

Similar to the Mariners, the Cardinals have yet to find much consistency, as St. Louis has only strung together consecutive wins twice this season. The Cardinals have averaged 7.13 runs per game in their eight wins but just 3.00 runs across their 12 defeats.

Can St. Louis’ bats get to Castillo? The Cardinals are hitting much worse against right-handed pitching with a team average of .255 and a slugging percentage of .399, compared to .317 and .556, respectively, vs lefties.

All signs point to Castillo having another dominant start against a struggling St. Louis squad, so I’m looking for the right-hander to hold the Cardinals to Under 2.5 runs tonight.

My best bet: Cardinals Under 2.5 runs (+140 at BetMGM)

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Cardinals vs Mariners moneyline analysis

The Mariners opened as the -152 home favorite for tonight’s ballgame and had their edge shift closer to -170 at most books by Saturday morning. The starters alone should give Seattle a sizable edge in this one, as Castillo has been lights-out while Miles Mikolas has struggled mightily to start his season.

Mikolas has given up at least five earned runs in three of his four starts, while allowing at least seven hits in each of those appearances. Opposing bats are hitting .366 against the right-hander, while he’s already given up four home runs.

Prior to their win over St. Louis last night, Seattle’s bats had cooled down, scoring just 3.00 runs per game over their last four outings. The Mariners, who boast six players with at least 10 RBI this season, have a chance to get back on track and run up the score against a struggling Cardinals starter.

Cardinals vs Mariners Over/Under analysis

The total for tonight’s contest opened at 7.5 runs and the Under looks like the play given the head-to-head history between the two clubs.

The Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings overall between Seattle and St. Louis and also 3-0-1 in their last four matchups at T-Mobile Park. The Under also tends to cash when Castillo takes the mound, as it’s 8-0 in his last eight starts on five days of rest.

Both clubs have been middle-of-the-pack offensively to start the year, so we should see a low-scoring effort from the Cardinals if Castillo is on his game again. That means the Mariners will need to put up at least five or six runs to cash the Over. 

Mikolas did show some improvement in his last outing as he held the Pirates to three earned runs over 5.2 innings on April 16 — if he keeps that up, we should see seven total runs or fewer tonight.

Cardinals vs Mariners game info

Cardinals vs Mariners betting preview

Starting pitchers

Miles Mikolas (0-1, 8.10 ERA): Mikolas has been poor to begin this season, and his first three starts in particular were frankly abysmal. The 34-year-old gave up a combined 29 hits, four homers, and 16 earned runs through his first three appearances, though he was better in his most recent start vs. Pittsburgh, allowing seven hits and three earned runs over 5.2 innings of work. 

Luis Castillo (2-0, 0.73 ERA): Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in the majors so far, to start his first full season with the Mariners, boasting a minuscule 0.73 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, and .131 opposing average — all three marks rank Top 2 among starters. Castillo has held opponents scoreless in three of his four starts this season while he’s yet to surrender a home run.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in St. Louis’ last five games after scoring two runs or less in their previous contest. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mariners