CBS Sports experts give their over/under picks for KU football's win total in 2023
It's shaping up to be another exciting and potentially unpredictable year in the Big 12 this fall, as the conference welcomes four new members and introduces a new scheduling format. On Wednesday, CBS Sports' Cover 3 Podcast — which features CBS Sports' Tom Fornelli, Chip Patterson and Bud Elliott — discussed half of the Big 12 and the respective team's season win totals. KU was one of the programs discussed. Using the season win total of six wins, the trio of analysts gave their predictions.
As for KU’s schedule, KU will play three of the four new Big 12 teams, with games against BYU and UCF coming in Lawrence and with KU traveling northeast to take on Cincinnati. KU will also play six familiar conference opponents, with three of those games coming at home as well. KU will play seven home games in 2023 as the program looks to build off the home-field advantage it established in September of last season, which saw KU sell out multiple games. KU has non-conference home games against Missouri State (Friday night) and Illinois (Friday night) to open the season. KU will also host Kansas State, UCF, BYU, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. The Sunflower Showdown is set for Nov. 18. KU's bye week will also fall after the seventh game of the season, the weekend of Oct. 21.
With the schedule in hand and the season approaching, the Cover 3 Podcast members gave their takes on KU. Here's what the crew had to say about KU and the Jayhawks' chances of reaching the over on the win total.
Bud Elliott:"I'm under here, not as hard. I did bet the under 6.5 when this came out. I thought that six [wins] is more likely than seven. I do think that five is more likely than seven. I think six, to me, is probably the most likely outcome. I think Lance is a really good coach. I think some of the power ratings are baking in, they use a three year moving average. I think they're probably baking in 2020 and 2021 too hard. But Kansas was pretty good in close games last year, at times. And then they also had some really bad field goal kicking stuff too. So that may get a little bit better this year. What really scares me about this team, and what sticks in my head, the offense should still be really really strong. I think they might be really, really bad at D-end. And if you can't rush the passer, I see some problems on this schedule for you. If you can't rush the passer at all — and they won't do this — but like 0-9 in the Big 12 is on the table."
Elliott later continued.
"They'll score a bunch. It's a super-experienced offense. It's a really well-coached offense. I'm sure they didn't have to go over the basics very much this spring. They're probably putting in a ton of stuff. You play Kansas and all of a sudden it's 'Oh, look, this guy's running wide open in our secondary again.' Like that's concerning [for opposing teams]. I just don't know. Defense to me is more talent than coaching and I don't know if they've got the guys."
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Tom Fornelli:"This is the coin flipiest of coin flips. My actual play here is the push. I have Kansas projected, genuinely, at 6.1 wins. So when I say I have a slight push towards the over it is just like this much of a push towards the over. I think that the Illinois game decides the entire thing. Like if they can win that game, I think they can get over. Because I think they'll do pretty well in the Big 12. But my problem with that Illinois game is, it reminds me exactly of what we saw last year. Illinois opened the preseason at home against Wyoming on a Saturday and went on the road and played Indiana on a short week on a Friday night [and lost]. Illinois opens the road or opens the season this year to home against Toledo — who's better than Wyoming — and then is heading to Kansas to play the Jayhawks on the road on a short week on a Friday night. I think that Kansas offense is going to be good and they do a really good job of getting guys open. As awesome as Illinois' defensive line is going to be. They have a very inexperienced secondary. Everybody from that unit is gone. So in the second week of the year against that Kansas offense, I feel like that could be a problem for the Illini defense and it could turn into a shootout. And I don't know if Illinois is really equipped yet to be winning in a shootout like that. So I do think Kansas is the favorite in that game. So I give them the slight edge there and that's why I'm giving them a slight over. But this is a push, they're going 6-6."
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Chip Patterson:"When I do weighted wins, certified losses and the toss-ups, you put in the Missouri State and you put in Nevada [certified wins] and I'm like that's all that I can confidently say because even teams that I think are worse than Kansas, those games are going to be on the road. I mean it's a pretty tough schedule."
Patterson later continued.
"Bud has mentioned on here that there is some math that backs up the idea that all 5.5s, you bet to the over just because of the intangibles. What's the likelihood they're going to be able to get it to a sixth win? They'll probably figure out a way to get to a sixth win. I don't think they get to a seventh. So I'm slightly, slightly to the under on this one."
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So, to recap, Elliott and Patterson have the under and Fornelli has the over.
