Celtics vs. Nuggets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (42-20) are 0.5-point underdogs against Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics (48-13) Thursday, March 7, 2024 at Ball Arena. The game starts at 10:00 PM ET on TNT. The point total in the matchup is set at 221.5.

Celtics vs. Nuggets Odds

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Who Will Win Celtics vs. Nuggets?

Celtics and Nuggets Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Celtics have a 29-27-3 record against the spread when favored by 0.5 points or more this season.

When they have played as at least 0.5-point underdogs this year, the Nuggets are 4-5 against the spread.

Between them, these two teams average 13.9 more points per game (235.4) than this matchup’s total (221.5).

Boston and Denver have seen its opponents average a combined 1.3 fewer points per game than the over/under of 221.5 set for this matchup.

The average over/under the Celtics have had in their games this year is 9.3 more points than this particular game’s point total.

The average point total for Denver this year is 3.3 points higher than this game’s over/under.

So far this season, Boston has compiled a 30-28-3 record against the spread.

The Nuggets have a 27-33-2 record against the spread this year.

Celtics Stats & Insights

The Celtics’ +684 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game) is a result of scoring 121 points per game (second in the NBA) while allowing 109.8 per contest (fourth in the league).

The 47.2 rebounds per game the Celtics average rank first in the NBA, and are 3.6 more than the 43.6 their opponents collect per outing.

Boston hits 16.3 three-pointers per game (first in the league), 3.2 more than its opponents (13.1). It is shooting 38.6% from beyond the arc (fourth-best in the NBA) while allowing opponents to shoot 34.8%.

The Celtics’ 123.4 points per 100 possessions on offense rank first in the NBA, and the 112 points they allow per 100 possessions rank second in the league.

The Celtics’ offense has been much better in home games (123.4 PPG) compared to road games (118.3 PPG). Similarly, their defense has been better at home (108 PPG allowed) compared to road games (111.8 PPG allowed).

Nuggets Stats & Insights

The Nuggets’ +250 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by four points per game) is a result of putting up 114.4 points per game (16th in NBA) while allowing 110.4 per outing (seventh in league).

Denver wins the rebound battle by 2.4 boards on average. It records 44.5 rebounds per game, ninth in the league, while its opponents pull down 42.1.

The Nuggets make 11.5 three-pointers per game (27th in the league) compared to their opponents’ 11.4. They shoot 36.8% from deep, and their opponents shoot 36.5%.

The Nuggets average 118.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (ninth in league), and give up 114.7 points per 100 possessions (10th in NBA).

Denver is putting up more points at home (118.1 per game) than away (111).

Celtics Key Players to Watch

Tatum averages 27.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.

Derrick White scores 15.3 points per game and adds 4.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists for the Celtics.

Tatum leads active Celtics in three-point shooting, making an average of 3.1 shots per game from beyond the arc.

White picks pockets to the tune of 1.0 steal per game, and Kristaps Porzingis compiles 1.8 rejections per contest.

Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Jokic has shown out this season to lead active Nuggets players in points (25.9 per game), rebounds (12.3 per game), and assists (9.2 per game).

Michael Porter Jr. averages 2.8 made threes per game.

The Nuggets’ defensive effort gets a lift from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (1.3 steals per game) and Peyton Watson (1.0 block per game).

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