Chester Cup tips: Horse by horse guide and Value Bet shortlist for Matt Brocklebank
Horse by horse guide
RAJINSKY (Hugo Palmer)
Looked to have graduated from handicaps when winning at Newmarket off a mark of 102 last September and he duly beat Trueshan at Nottingham on his seasonal comeback. Last of six in the Sagaro last week and looks unlikely to take up this engagement.
FALCON EIGHT (Dermot Weld)
Won off 104 two years ago and fifth to Cleveland off 5lb higher and has only added a small conditions event to the tally from eight subsequent starts over jumps and on the level. Still high enough in the handicap (108) and not getting any younger so clearly still vulnerable.
ISRAR (John & Thady Gosden)
Lightly-raced sort from top yard and no surprise he’s among the market leaders here given his high-class handicap form over middle-distances. Only mid-pack off this mark when sent off favourite for the November Handicap at Doncaster when last seen so needs this step right up to staying trips to spark something extra.
RESHOUN (Patrick Morris)
Standing dish in these handicaps for Ian Williams over the years and peak performances arguably last season as an eight-year-old. Consequently 5lb higher than when well held in this at 40/1 12 months ago and hard to fancy on first start for new, albeit local, yard.
TRITONIC (Alan King)
Initially made name for himself as a juvenile hurdlers but has mixed things quite well over the years, recording three wins in each code. Enjoys getting his toe into the ground and won off just 4lb lower at Goodwood last October but others more persuasive on his first attempts around this quirky track.
EUCHEN GLEN (Jim Goldie)
Brilliant campaigner for top Scottish stable and probably not done with yet in terms of being competitive in this heritage handicaps based on his six-length fourth to Wise Eagle at Musselburgh. Something to prove over distances quite this far but no forlorn hope despite advancing years.
CALLING THE WIND (Richard Hughes)
Hasn’t had much racing for one his age and he’s looked a little bit in no-man’s land between major handicaps and pattern races over the past couple of years. Assessor is gradually relenting but it doesn’t look to be enough.
THE GRAND VISIR (Ian Williams)
Another veteran of the staying handicap scene and he ran a belter off 103 when second to Falcon Eight in this a couple of years back. Scratching around for form after that in 2021 and only seen twice last year, latest when ninth in this event. Lowest-handicap mark since 2018 probably the shred of hope connections can cling to.
METIER (Harry Fry)
Useful performer when the mud is flying and having won the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown he reminded everyone of his talents when landing the November Handicap at Doncaster in November. Probably improved again when second to Wise Eagle at Musselburgh last month and while his mark has edged up to 97 (Donny win off 89), he’s got to be afforded some respect if the rain lingers into the back end of the week.
VINO VICTRIX (Hughie Morrison)
I make no apologies for banging this drum again but Benoit De La Sayette will have lost his 3lb claim before you know it (he needs just seven more winners, at the time of writing) so anything he’s on in these particularly valuable handicaps makes for interesting reading. Keep the ride on Vino Victrix makes plenty of sense after the pair had a quiet prep run behind Chester Cup market leader Novel Legend at Newbury last month. Needs to leave that effort behind but he was a progressive stayer last year and has a big chance providing the ground isn’t bottomless.
DUTY OF CARE (Jamie Osborne)
Only ran at Newmarket on Sunday and was beaten a long old way so looks one of those who will be skipping his engagement here.
HALIPHON (Ian Williams)
Jim Crowley booking looks a bit of a statement of intent (takes over from 3lb claimer) and he’s surely sitting on some potential further improvement having been well held in this last year before winning at York and Chester later into the summer. Briefly tried over hurdles in the autumn but those plans were shelved and he was never sighted on last month’s seasonal return. Shame that he’s 2lb ‘wrong’ here having been dropped for that relatively limp comeback run.
ZOFFEE (Hugo Palmer)
Didn’t quite cut it over hurdles and fences (not the biggests), despite winning in both disciplines, but has made the most of a return to Flat racing with two handicap wins over staying trips last year. Went on to be beaten a head into third in the valuable bet365 Trophy at Newmarket so he’s got the class for a race like this and still looks fairly treated having been fourth off this mark in the Cesarewitch when last seen. Not hard to envisage he’s had this day ringed in the diary for a while now but he’ll have to be read (not great record first time back).
THEMAXWECAN (Charlie Johnston)
Does tend to pop up when getting his conditions but he’s been a NR loads following wet weather so the forecast is far from inspiring.
BASCULE (Richard Hughes)
Still lingering on a manageable mark based on the pick of his form but his all-weather record is what stands him apart and he’s not going to enjoy this if it develops into a bad-ground slog.
ALMUHIT (Denis Hogan)
Ex-Gosden four-year-old who had mixed results over hurdles this winter/spring, coming up well short in the Triumph after quite an encouraging start. Rated just 114 in that code so harshly handicapped (92) back on the Flat and handling the likely soft going possibly won’t be enough.
LAW OF THE SEA (Ian Williams)
One of 11 for Ian Williams yard initially confirmed for this but he’s not yet jocked up so plan could be to look elsewhere with this fast-ground winner having his first start for the stable off a stiff enough mark. Longer-term project and worth monitoring into the summer in less competitive handicaps.
AZTEC EMPIRE (Andrew Balding)
Son of Sea The Stars and another for whom soft conditions may place too much emphasis on stamina. That said, yard have a fine record here including victory in 2017 and runner-up last year so likely to have been the target for a while. He’s 2lb ‘wrong’ at the weights following a well-beaten sixth behind Novel Legend.
EMIYN (Declan Carroll)
Race-fit from two runs at Musselburgh and Thirsk, form that ties in here and leaves him with something to find. ‘Softer the better’ for him according to trainer and his course record (142421) is very encouraging. Problem is he’ll need a new career-best at the age of six which is a bit of a longshot.
GREEN BOOK (Venetia Williams)
Trained in France previously and really announced himself on these shores when hacking up from mark of 77 in the 2021 Chester Cup consolation race (form reads well) and he’s been a cracking handicap hurdler in the interim period, never better than when winning at Sandown in February and running very well for fourth in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham from an inflated NH mark of 139. Back on the level off 89, rain a positive if anything a major threat to all if sneaking in at the final declaration stage.
CALL MY BLUFF (Dominic Ffrench Davis)
He’s 2lb well-in after chasing home Call My Bluff at Newbury last month and does look capable of climbing a little higher in the rankings as he posted another couple of very good efforts in defeat when placed behind Rajinsky and Emiyn at Newmarket and here respectively in September. That took Chester form to 312 and he loves a slog in soft ground.
AL ZARAQAAN (Sam England)
Not the most straightforward by all accounts and switches Archie Watson yard for Sam England who has had a recent winner. Went up from initial jumps mark of 104 to 123 at one point over the winter so clearly been heading the right direction and his Flat on the grass (89) is much lower than current AW figure of 102. Reasonably intriguing if getting in but surely wouldn’t want deep ground.
NOVEL LEGEND (James Fanshawe)
Tightened up considerably for this on Monday morning which could be a sign of encouragement in regards to his chance of making the final 17 but it’s obviously going to be quite tight. In a field of largely exposed stayers he stands out a mile on the back of his six-length comeback defeat of Call My Bluff at Newbury (soft) and, due to go up 10lb, he’s clearly well-in here with just the 3lb penalty. Handles soft, had won here over extended 1m6f and trainer going along at close to 30% strike rate this spring. Really is hard to knoc.
DIAMOND BAY (Tom Ward)
Best known for his exploits on the all-weather but he maintain a good level of consistency switched to turf last year. Has looked held by the handicapper this spring and wouldn’t be near the shortlist given the expected weather.
Value Bet shortlist
- Green Book - 9/1 (bet365)
- Call My Bluff - 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- Vino Victrix - 14/1 (General)
Everything hinges on the final field and there’s no desire to recommend another bet at this stage having identified Green Book as the one to be (20/1) in the long-range preview.
He’s 20 on the list (17 max) and seems likely to make the cut, but punters are putting a lot of faith in recent Newbury winner Novel Legend sneaking in which looks ominous as he’s 7lb well-in under the penalty.
At longer odds, the horse who chased the favourite home in Berkshire must be afforded some respect and he looks out of line at 25/1 in places.
Israr looks a class act, will handle the soft and still has time on his side to prove a bit more than a handicapper, while Metier is possibly just a fraction too high in the weights too.
Vino Victrix is 8lb ‘wrong’ with Novel Legend on the revised terms but I don’t think it would be wise to take his comeback run at face value. Benoit De La Sayette keeps the ride on the Cesarwitch runner-up and he could step forward again this season.
First published at 1300 BST on 08/05/23
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