Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Kansas City Royals (36-77) and Boston Red Sox (57-54) open a 4-game set at Fenway Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Royals won 4-3 in 2022.

The Royals have lost 2 straight after they compiled a 7-game winning streak. They are 7-3 over the last 10, but they are still just 12-18 over the last 30 games. The Royals are also no bueno on the road at 15-41, and they’re just 5-15 against the AL East.

The Red Sox have lost 4 in a row and 7 of 8, and they need to turn it around in this series if they have any hopes of entering the Wild Card fold. They sit 5 games out of a playoff spot. Three positive points for this one: the Red Sox are 30-26 at home, 17-12 against lefties and 11-8 against the AL Central.

Royals at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Ragans (3-3, 4.33 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K against New York Mets Wednesday
• Since entering KC’s rotation: 2 starts, 11 IP, 1 ER, 11 H, 3 BB, 11 K

Bello (8-6, 3.79 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 102 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K Tuesday against the Seattle Mariners
• Home/road splits: 4-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 10 home starts; 4-2, 4.37 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 8 road starts

Royals at Red Sox odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Royals at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Royals 5

There’s no point in betting on either side of the moneyline here. I have no faith in the Royals on the road, and the Red Sox at -200 isn’t an option.

PASS.

Bello has hit a snag in what has been a good season. He has allowed 16 ER in 22 IP over his last 4 starts. Meanwhile, Ragans has been good in his first 2 starts with the Royals. Kansas City got the best of Boston last season, and I’m willing to LEAN ROYALS +1.5 (-110) in this one.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

The Royals are 8-2 O/U over the last 10, and the Red Sox are 4-6. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams as well. The biggest change for KC is they are averaging 6 runs per game over the last 10 — even in losses they still had 13 runs in 3 games. The Red Sox have stalled out offensively, scoring more than 3 runs just 3 times in 10 games.

I think this will be a back-and-forth affair, and I’ll LEAN OVER 10 (-110).

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup