Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions
The Cleveland Guardians (57-62) and the Cincinnati Reds (62-58) open a 2-game interleague series at Great American Ball Park Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; teams split 2-2 in 2022
The Guardians won 9-2 Sunday at Tropicana Field, salvaging the final contest in a 3-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays. After a 5-0 Under run, the Over cashed in all 3 outings against the Rays. Cleveland has scored 4 or more runs in 4 straight contests for the 1st time since July 17-21.
The Reds took 2 of 3 games from the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, including a split of a doubleheader Sunday after rains washed away Saturday’s contest. The Over cashed in 2 of the 3 games, but the Under is still 8-2 in the last 10 games.
The Reds find themselves tied for 2nd place in the NL Central Division with the Chicago Cubs, 3 1/2 games back of the 1st-place Milwaukee Brewers.
Guardians at Reds projected starters
LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Allen (5-5, 3.55 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 91 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 1-0 home loss vs. the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 3-2, 3.27 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 15 ER – 4 HR), .239 opponent batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
Ashcraft (6-7, 4.95 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 120 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H (solo HR), 1 BB, 7 K in a 5-4 home loss Wednesday vs. the Miami Marlins
- 2023 home splits: 3-6, 5.79 ERA (70 IP, 45 ER – 14 HR), .261 OBA in 13 starts
Guardians at Reds odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 a.m. ET.
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Guardians at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 4, Guardians 3
The REDS (-110) are the play in the opener of this 2-game interleague series. Cincinnati has hit a little bit of a speed bump lately, losing 5 of 6 games at home, while going just 3-9 in 12 games since flipping the calendar from July to August.
However, the Guardians (-110) threw in the towel at the trade deadline despite being very much alive for an AL Central Division title, and Cleveland is an equally dismal 5-11 in the last 16 games with a rather toothless offense overall.
The REDS +1.5 (-175) are a little on the expensive side if you need a little insurance. The Reds have lost 6 straight outright as a favorite, and Cincinnati has failed to cover the run line in 7 straight when favored. It’s last cover as a favorite on the run line was June 21 against the Colorado Rockies.
There is plenty of risk, but the Guardians -1.5 (+145) are certainly not the play, and Cleveland is skidding hard.
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UNDER 9.5 (-115) might be the best play on the board, but go lightly due to Ashcraft’s struggles at home.
The Cincinnati righty has managed a rather unseemly 5.79 ERA in 70 IP at home in 13 starts, serving up 14 of his 18 HRs at GABP. However, while Cleveland has had a slight uptick in offense in the past week, it has been rather moribund all season.
Despite a 3-0 Over run in St. Pete over the weekend, the Under is still 10-5-1 across the previous 16 games overall for the Guardians.
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