Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays (63-50) and the Cleveland Guardians (54-58) open a 4-game series at Progressive Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Guardians won season series 5-2 in 2022

The Blue Jays picked up a 3-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox over the weekend, winning the finale 13-1 on Sunday and outscoring the Red Sox 25-8 at Fenway Park. Toronto entered the series 0-7 this season against Boston. Toronto is 9-4 across the past 13 games overall and is 6-1 in its last 7 road outings.

The Guardians lost 5-3 Sunday and 7-4 Saturday to the Chicago White Sox as it failed to deliver a knockout punch after a 4-2 series-opening victory on Friday.

However, there were some punches thrown Saturday. Cleveland star 3B Jose Ramirez got into a fight with White Sox SS Tim Anderson, and both are likely facing a lengthy suspension. MLB is still reviewing the incident, so stay tuned. Ramirez, who leads the team with 18 HR, was in the lineup as the DH Sunday.

Blue Jays at Guardians projected starters

LHP Hyun Jin Ryu vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Ryu (0-1, 7.20 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He made his season debut Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles after recovering from elbow surgery.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 13-3 home loss vs. the Orioles Tuesday
• 2022 road splits: 1-0, 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER – 1 HR), .270 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts

Williams (1-3, 3.38 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 42 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 2-0 road loss vs. the Houston Astros Tuesday
• 2023 home splits: 1-1, 4.21 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 12 ER – 4 HR), .273 OBA in 5 starts

Blue Jays at Guardians odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.

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Blue Jays at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Guardians 4

The BLUE JAYS (-130) are worth a look, as Toronto heads to The Land with a head of steam after sweeping the BoSox in Beantown.

The Guardians surprisingly were sellers at the MLB trade deadline, and they lost 2 of 3 games to the lowly White Sox over the weekend. Cleveland has a penchant for making trash look like treasure and is likely to make Ryu resemble his 2019 All-Star form rather than the rusty southpaw we saw last time out against Baltimore.

The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-155) are worth playing lightly, as they’re not priced out of line.

Williams has been a steadying force in a young and relatively inexperienced pitching rotation. He’ll keep the Guardians in it.

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AVOID, as I expect the run total to come down right on the number.

While Cleveland has cashed the Under in 4 of the past 5 games and has cashed low at a 6-2-1 clip across the past 9 games, it could pile up some decent offense against the shaky Ryu.

Meanwhile, we saw the Over cash Sunday in Toronto’s 13-1 rout in Boston, snapping a 9-0 run to the Under. Going low on the total might be tempting, but the pitching matchup makes that a rather risky proposition.

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