Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Cincinnati Reds (80-77) and the Cleveland Guardians (74-83) kick off a 2-game interleague series Tuesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Reds snapped a 4-game losing streak Sunday, grabbing a much-needed win in 3-game set in Pittsburgh against the already eliminated Pirates. Cincinnati currently sits 2 1/2 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot with 5 games remaining. Analytics shows the Reds with a mere 8.2% chance of making the postseason.

The Guardians gave the Baltimore Orioles a hard time over the weekend, splitting a 4-game set. Cleveland’s offense dried up in the final 2 games, both losses, totaling just 2 runs. The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games for the Guardians.

Reds at Guardians projected starters

RHP Hunter Greene vs. RHP Lucas Giolito

Greene (4-6, 4.24 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 in 104 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 14 K in 5-3 home loss vs. the Minnesota Twins last Wednesday
• 2023 road splits: 3-2, 3.68 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 4 HR, .227 OBA in 12 starts

Giolito (8-14, 4.60 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 176 innings with the White Sox, Angels and Guardians.

• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-2 road loss vs. the Kansas City Royals last Wednesday
• 2023 home splits: 5-4, 3.19 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 12 HR, .193 OBA in 14 starts

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Reds at Guardians odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:58 a.m. ET.

Reds at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Guardians 2

The REDS (-110) are a solid play on the road against the Guardians (-110).

While Cincinnati hasn’t exactly played with a sense of urgency, dropping 4 of the past 5 games overall at an inopportune time, and just 11-11 in the month of September, it should take care of business in Cleveland.

Giolito has been very giving, serving up 37 HR in 176 IP overall, including 7 dingers in just 22 IP across 4 starts since landing in Cleveland, losing 3 of those outings.

The REDS -1.5 (+155) are a solid play on the run line, as I expect Cincinnati to power up against Giolito, and cover in a much-needed win against the Guardians +1.5 (-190).

While Cincinnati is just 4-11 in the past 15 games as a favorite, and 3-5 in the past 8 on the run line as a favorite, one of those covers was in the most recent meeting with Cleveland on Aug. 16.

The UNDER 8 (-115) might be the best play on the board.

While Giolito scares me due to his penchant for serving up homers, and a lot of them, the Guardians offense has managed a total of just 2 runs in the past 2 games, while the total has gone low in 4 of the past 5 games overall.