Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds and predictions
The Cleveland Guardians (25-32) and the Minnesota Twins (31-27) play the 3rd contest in a 4-game series on Saturday at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 3-2
The Guardians are ranked 29th in runs per game (3.61) and were shut out 1-0 Friday. Cleveland has dropped 12 of the past 16 games on the road, has lost 6 of the past 7 games against a right-handed starter and has lost each of its last 4 tries inside the AL Central.
The Twins have won 3 consecutive games, its longest win streak since winning 3 in a row from April 23-25. Minnesota is looking to tie a season-best with a 4th straight win, a feat it accomplished twice in April.
Minnesota has won 16 of its last 21 games at Target Field against a left-handed starting pitcher while cashing in 13 of its last 19 games inside the division.
Guardians at Twins projected starters
LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Allen (2-2, 2.72 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K in a 5-0 road win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Monday
- 2023 Road splits: 1-1, 1.53 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 3 ER) with 5 BB, 23 K and a .209 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
- 2023 vs. Minnesota: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 4-3 home win on May 6
Gray (4-0, 1.94 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 7-5 road win vs. the Houston Astros Monday
- 2023 Home splits: 3-0, 1.27 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 5 ER – 0 HR) with a .198 OBA in 6 starts
- 2023 vs. Cleveland: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 road loss opposite Allen on May 6
Guardians at Twins odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!
Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Guardians 1
The TWINS (-140) are a great play, as they look to go 3-for-3 to start this 4-game divisional series.
Minnesota has won a pair of 1-run games on Thursday and Friday, and Cleveland is unlikely to have much offense against Gray. He has allowed 1 or 0 runs in 5 of his 6 starts and allowed just 2 ER in the other outing.
The Twins have won 16 of the past 21 home games against a southpaw, and it is 13-6 in the past 19 inside the division.
The TWINS -1.5 (+145) are worth playing on the run line, even though the first 2 games have been won by just a single run.
The Guardians are unlikely to muster much offense against Gray, and 9 of Minnesota’s last 11 victories have actually been by 2 or more runs. If you like the Twins, you should like them on the run line.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
The UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the best play on the board, as Cleveland has really struggled to score runs this season.
The Under has cashed in 10 of the past 11 in Game 3 of a series while going 13-3-1 in the past 17 games inside the division. The Under is also 19-7 in the past 26 against a right-handed starting pitcher.
The Under is 4-1 in the Twins’ last 5 games inside the division and is 4-1 in their past 5 games against the Guardians. The Under is also 5-1 in the past 6 for Minnesota following a win.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
