Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions
The Minnesota Twins (42-42) and the Baltimore Orioles (48-33) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. First pitch is set for 12:05 p.m. ET (Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-0
The Twins scratched back to .500 by going 2-for-2 in this series after Saturday’s 1-0 win. Minnesota has outscored Baltimore 9-1 in the 2 games. Twins pitching has allowed a total of just 21 runs across the last 9 games, with the Under going 7-2 during that stretch.
The Orioles have had a power outage against Twins pitching. In the 5 games prior to this series, Baltimore was averaging 5.4 runs per game (RPG). And overall, the O’s are averaging 4.8 RPG to rank 9th in the majors, according to covers.com.
Twins at Orioles projected starters
RHP Sonny Gray vs. LHP Cole Irvin
Gray (4-2, 2.67 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 87 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 4-1 road loss vs. the Atlanta Braves Monday
- 2023 road splits: 1-1, 3.19 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 13 ER – 2 HR) with a .232 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts
Irvin (1-3, 7.18 ERA) makes his 7th start and 9th overall appearance. He has a 1.67 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 26 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 10-3 home win vs. the Cincinnati Reds Monday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 5.82 ERA (17 IP, 11 ER – 1 HR) with a .273 OBA in 4 starts
Twins at Orioles odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.
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Twins at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 6, Orioles 3
The TWINS (-120) are a solid play, as the visitors look to complete the sweep of the Orioles (+100) in Charm City.
The pitching matchup is squarely in favor of the Twins, as the veteran Gray has been very consistent most of the season. On the flip side, Irvin has been very giving all around, although he has managed to at least keep the ball inside the yard at home.
The TWINS -1.5 (+135) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line. It is 4-1 in the last 5 games straight up as a favorite, while going 3-1 on the run line in the last 4 when favored.
As far as the Orioles +1.5 (-165) are concerned, they’re 1-3 in the last 4 games as an underdog, both straight up and against the run line.
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I expect the Over/Under 9 to come down right on the number, so I’d PASS.
If I had a lean, it would be to the Under based on Gray’s overall numbers and solid road splits. The Under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games for Minnesota, while going 6-2 in the past 8 tries against a left-handed starting pitcher.
The Under is also 17-7 in the past 24 meetings in Baltimore, and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall in this series.
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