2024 Cognizant Classic odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions by golf model that nailed 10 majors
The 2024 Cognizant Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens will be the first of four tournaments in a row played in Florida on the 2024 PGA Tour schedule. Play begins Thursday with the first tee times coming at 6:45 a.m. ET. Rory McIlroy won $1.6 million for charity in one swing to finish The Match on Monday and now he'll make the short 30-minute track north to enter the Cognizant Classic field for the first time since 2018. McIlroy won this tournament in 2012 (then the Honda Classic) and the No. 2 player in the world will be seeking his 25th career PGA Tour victory this week.
That would move him into the top 25 all-time in PGA Tour wins and McIlroy is the 6-1 favorite in the 2024 Cognizant Classic odds. He's followed by Cameron Young (22-1), Russell Henley (25-1) and Matt Fitzpatrick in this week's PGA Tour odds. J.T. Poston, Tom Kim and Min Woo Lee are in the next cluster of Cognizant Classic contenders at 30-1 each. Before locking in your 2024 Cognizant Classic picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,700 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model included Hideki Matsuyama in its best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the Cognizant Classic 2024 field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 Cognizant Classic predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Cognizant Classic 2024: Young, the 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. Young has been playing well in recent weeks, finishing T-18 or better in each of his last two starts, which includes a T-8 showing at the WM Phoenix Open. However, Young has never won a PGA Tour event, and SportsLine's model isn't expecting him to find success at PGA National.
The Champions Course at PGA National is a venue that demands precision, an area in which Young struggled last season. In fact, Young finished the 2022-23 season ranked 106th in driving accuracy (59.05%). He also finished last season ranked 113th in putts per round (29.10) and 158th in strokes gained: putting (-0.287), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Cognizant Classic.
Another surprise: Chris Kirk, a 45-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 38-year-old veteran is the defending champion of this event, winning in a playoff over Eric Cole in the 2023 Honda Classic. He's also already scored a victory in 2024, winning The Sentry by a shot over Sahith Theegala to open the 2024 PGA Tour season.
Kirk is now a six-time winner on the PGA Tour and his two wins over the last calendar year have propelled him to No. 27 in the Official World Golf Ranking. The University of Georgia product made the cut in four of the five events that he's played this season and he'll enter the week sitting fourth in the 2024 FedEx Cup standings. Kirk ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.275) this season and he was also top 10 at the 2022 Honda Classic. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2024 Cognizant Classic picks
The model is also targeting five other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 Cognizant Classic, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Cognizant Classic 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Cognizant Classic leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors, including last year's Masters and Open Championship.
2024 Cognizant Classic odds, field
Rory McIlroy +600Cameron Young +2200Russell Henley +2500Matt Fitzpatrick +2800Min Woo Lee +3000J.T. Poston +3000Tom Kim +3000Shane Lowry +3300Sungjae Im +3500Byeong Hun An +3500Eric Cole +3500Rasmus Højgaard +4000Keith Mitchell +4000Matthieu Pavon +4500Corey Conners +4500Sepp Straka +4500Chris Kirk +4500Daniel Berger +4500Stephan Jaeger +4500Beau Hossler +5000Thorbjørn Olesen +5000Alex Noren +5000Justin Rose +5000Denny McCarthy +5500Jake Knapp +5500Adam Svensson +6000Rickie Fowler +6000Luke List+6000Tom Hoge +6000Akshay Bhatia +7000Doug Ghim +7500Thomas Detry +7500Taylor Pendrith +7500Billy Horschel +7500Erik van Rooyen +7500Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000Brendon Todd +8000Lucas Glover +9000Ryo Hisatsune +9000Ryan Fox +9000Taylor Montgomery +9000Davis Thompson +10000Matt Wallace +10000Mark Hubbard +10000Maverick McNealy +11000Justin Suh +11000Austin Eckroat +11000Ben Griffin +11000Adam Schenk +11000Chesson Hadley +11000Sami Valimaki +11000Gary Woodland +12000Jhonattan Vegas +12000Chris Gotterup +12000Matt Kuchar +15000Kevin Yu +15000
