College Football Championship Weekend 2023: Full picks, predictions for Power 5 games
The 2023 college football regular season has come to an end, and Conference Championship weekend will determine who plays in the CFP
It won't be long until we find out what the last four-team field for the College Football Playoff will look like before the field expands to twelve teams next year, and all that stands in the way of that announcement are 48 hours and five Conference Championship Games, all which potentially have major CFP implications.
Literally over one-thousand games have been played this college football season, and all of the blowouts, upsets, and last-second finishes have led to this moment. All of those games, memorable or forgettable, controversial or definitive, have led to Championship weekend, and my goodness, how can you beat it? The Christmas decorations are going up. It's getting a little nippy outside. And this is when championships are won. So before you bundle up and get settled in to watch all the action over the weekend, check out my picks for each of the Power 5 conference title games this year.
Pac-12 Championship – Oregon (#5) vs. Washington (#3)
How to Watch: Friday Dec. 1st, 8:00 PM ET, ABC
The Line: Oregon -9.5, O/U 65.5
The Matchup: Arguably the biggest game of Conference Championship weekend is the one that kicks things off tonight. Oregon and Washington played in an instant classic up in Seattle back in October, but despite the fact that Huskies came away with the win over the Ducks, they're still a substantial underdog for this tilt against Oregon in Las Vegas. The Ducks have good reason to be favored against any team in the country. In just two years as the Oregon head coach, Dan Lanning has turned the Ducks into a well-balanced powerhouse. And not the kind of powerhouse they were when Chip Kelly was the man in charge. This Oregon squad is tough, hungry, physical, and pissed off… all words that were never used to describe Kelly's Ducks.
“He's developed a culture of toughness,” Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein told ESPN's Paolo Uggetti. “I mean his program's built on toughness, mental and physical.”
Oregon's beat the hell out of nearly everyone this year. Ten of their eleven wins have come by at least two scores, including seven by at least three touchdowns. The only blemish on their record is the one loss they suffered to Washington, a team without a blemish just yet.
The Huskies, although 12-0, have had to sweat in ways that Oregon hasn't. In fact, each of Washington's last eight wins have been by single-digits, including their 36-33 win over Oregon on October 14th. We thought TCU lived on the edge last year on their way to the College Football Playoff, but the Horned Frogs only had five regular season games decided by single-digits.
In their first meeting, Washington scored first and managed to have the lead at the end of all four quarters, but most analysts still came away from that game thinking Oregon was the better team. And they may be right. The Ducks out-gained the Huskies by nearly 150 yards, had eight more first downs, and didn't turn the ball over once. Had the Ducks converted a crucial fourth down late, Washington may have never gotten the ball back and been able to come away with the win thanks to a Michael Penix Jr. to Rome Odunze touchdown pass with under two minutes to go.
The Pick: For Washington to get the win and secure a College Football Playoff berth, they'll need to get off to a hot start just like they did in October. Oregon ran the ball effectively in their first meeting (40 carries for 204 yards), so if the Ducks get out to an early lead, they should be able to bleed the clock. The oddsmakers are saying to go with Oregon, and just about everyone I've talked to about this game feels the same way. But there's something about this Washington team that makes me feel like they're going to come out on top. I don't know if it's Big Penix Energy or if I just can't get over the fact that the Huskies have beaten the Ducks once already, but either way I'm going with Washington 33, Oregon 31.
Big 12 Championship – Oklahoma State (#18) vs. Texas (#7)
How to Watch: Saturday Dec. 2nd, Noon ET, ABC
The Line: Texas -15.0, O/U 54.5
The Matchup: How fitting it would've been if the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners had hooked up one more time in the Big 12 Championship before departing for the SEC. After the Sooners upset the Longhorns earlier in the season, that was the matchup everyone anticipated seeing on the first weekend of December. Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma State Cowboys had other plans. Oklahoma State took care of business against Oklahoma in what could be the final edition of Bedlam, and eked out an overtime win over BYU in their regular season finale in order to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Now the Cowboys look to play spoiler again.
What a feather in the cap of the Big 12 it would be if Oklahoma State could knock off both Texas AND Oklahoma in a month's span before they join the mighty SEC. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I'd advise that there could be a little chicanery with the officiating on Saturday afternoon, but I'm not, so I'll only mention it in passing. Instead, I'll focus on the fact that Steve Sarkisian is 0-2 against Oklahoma State as the Longhorns head coach (Texas and Oklahoma State did NOT play each other in the regular season this year), and that when Texas was beat by Oklahoma they gave up over 200 yards rushing, and now they face Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon, the leading rusher in the NCAA this season. Could the Cowboys ride Gordon to their first Big 12 Championship?
The Pick: There's something pulling at me to take Oklahoma State to secure a literal victory for themselves and a symbolic victory for the Big 12, but then I think back to the Texas win against Alabama earlier in the year, and if Bama hadn't seemingly turned a corner, maybe that win wouldn't occupy as much space in my brain. But in that game in Tuscaloosa, I saw a Longhorns team that was clearly the better of the two teams on the field, which is something rarely said when a Nick Saban coached team is on the other side. And on Saturday afternoon, I think Texas is once again the better team. Give me Texas 29, Oklahoma State 24, with the Longhorns raising the WWE Championship belts up at game's end.
SEC Championship – Alabama (#8) vs. Georgia (#1)
How to Watch: Saturday Dec. 2nd, 4 PM ET, CBS
The Line: Georgia -5.0, O/U 54.5
The Matchup: I'll pass on running through all of the College Football Playoff scenarios tied to this game. I already did that yesterday in response to Nick Saban saying that he felt the SEC deserves a team in the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome of the SEC Championship Game, and there are simply too many to run through when I'm already over 1,000 words deep into this preview. So let's focus on the game…
Ultimately, the SEC Championship Game comes down to one question: has Georgia slipped as much from the previous two seasons as Alabama has? We've heard all about how Nick Saban may be losing his fastball, and how Bama's run may atop the SEC may be in jeopardy, but less attention has been paid to the fact that Georgia is clearly not the powerhouse they were each of the last two seasons. Across the board, the numbers and the eye-test suggest that Georgia isn't the unbeatable juggernaut they have been, but given the fact that they're riding a 29-game winning streak and the second-best run ever atop the AP Poll, it's awfully easy to overlook all of that.
Georgia's last loss was to Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship Game. The Tide came away with a 41-24 win over the top-ranked Bulldogs, but Georgia was able to avenge that SEC Championship Game loss a little over a month later, when they beat Bama 33-18 in the College Football Playoff championship game. In order to pull off an SEC Championship upset for the second time in three years, it'll be on Jalen Milroe to be special. Kirby Smart had rave reviews for the Tide quarterback, but Milroe has only proven to be this guy for half a season. Against a fierce Bulldogs defense, will Milroe once again look like the guy who was benched earlier in the season?
The Pick: The Bulldogs may not be as dominant as they have been the previous two years, but they're certainly seasoned. Before closing their season with a win at in-state rival Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs had three consecutive games against ranked SEC foes. They won those games by an average score of 40-16. Nick Saban and the Tide will keep it closer than that, but I still like Georgia to march on in pursuit of the first College Football three-peat since Minnesota did so in 1934-36. I say the final is Georgia 30, Alabama 21.
ACC Championship – Louisville (#14) vs. Florida State (#4)
How to Watch: Saturday Dec. 2nd, 8 PM ET, ABC
The Line: Florida State -1.5, O/U 47.5
The Matchup: Two weeks ago this game looked a heck of a lot more interesting than it does right now. Just think about where we were… Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis had not yet suffered a brutal lower leg injury that ended his college career, and the surprising Louisville Cardinals were still a fringe College Football Playoff team. Now with Travis on the sideline and Louisville out of the CFP mix thanks to a loss last week to Kentucky, this feels like the odd game out on Saturday. And yet, with a win, Florida State could complete an undefeated season and be Playoff bound with four-year back-up QB Tate Rodemaker leading the Noles offense.
The drop-off from Travis, a four-year starter in Tallahassee, to Rodemaker will be noticeable no doubt, but FSU head coach Jay Norvell has expressed nothing but confidence in his fill-in quarterback.
“I’m so proud of Tate Rodemaker. I knew we could win with Tate. I knew we could win with Tate,” Norvell said over Florida, per Jay Busbee of Yahoo Sports. “I’ve seen it in practice, I’ve seen him work. I’ve seen him so much invest and be prepared for the moment.”
Well the moment on Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game will be bigger than the one Rodemaker survived last week. And despite the loss to Kentucky, Louisville poses a much bigger challenge than the Florida Gators did.
The Pick: The Louisville Cardinals were picked to finish 8th in the ACC's preseason poll, but they've rarely looked like a team that doesn't belong in at least a New Year's Six bowl game this year. A balanced offensive attack led by quarterback Jack Plummer and running backs Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo, and a top 25 scoring defense gives Louisville a good chance to beat anyone in the country, and as we head into the ACC Championship, the loss of Jordan Travis worries me more than Louisville's loss to Kentucky does. In an outright upset, I'm going with Louisville 26, Florida State 20.
Big Ten Championship – Iowa (#16) vs. Michigan (#2)
How to Watch: Saturday Dec. 2nd, 8 PM ET, FOX
The Line: Michigan -22.0, O/U 34.5
The Matchup: The most basic, straight-forward analysis of this matchup in the Big Ten Championship Game goes something like this… I just don't think Iowa can score enough points to hang around in this one. Watching the Hawkeyes this year has given me PTSD flashbacks to watching Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman quarterback inept Chicago Bears offenses in the mid-00's while the Bears D was single-handedly winning games with scores like 10-7, 13-10, and 15-6. Oh wait, those were all Iowa scores this year. The Hawkeyes were 124th out of 133 teams in the country in points per game. Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines scored 37.6 points per game and were the nation's #1 scoring defense.
Iowa's hope here is that their defense is every bit as good as advertised, if not better. The Michigan offense has had their share of hiccups over the last month, and even at their best, I couldn't see them lighting up the scoreboard against a Kirk Ferentz coached team that has been able to hold every opponent but one (Penn State) under twenty points this season. If Iowa can force some turnovers and do just enough offensively to at least give punter Tory Taylor a chance to pin Michigan deep in their own territory, then maybe you can make the case for Iowa to pull one of the biggest championship weekend upsets in recent memory. Otherwise, there's just not much hope here.
The Pick: All due respect to current Hawkeye QB and former Wolverine Cade McNamara, but I just don't see a revenge game in the cards here. Michigan has been playing revenge games all season long, and this one is no different. For all intents and purposes, the Big Ten became Michigan's rival this season as soon as they suspended Jim Harbaugh for three games. Michigan survived without Harbaugh during the toughest stretch of their schedule, including their annual meeting with Ohio State. Some years, after an emotional win like the Wolverines secured over the Buckeyes last week, I'd say that this could actually wind up being a trap game for Michigan. But given all that has gone on with Jim Harbaugh in the aftermath of the Connor Stalions situation, I don't think the Wolverines will still be sleeping at kickoff on Saturday night. My pick is Michigan 24, Iowa 6.
