College football picks, Week 11: Michigan vs. Penn State prediction, odds, spread, game preview, more

The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) will hit the road to take on the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) on Saturday, November 11. Kickoff from Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania is set for Noon ET, and the game will air on Fox.

The Wolverines remain undefeated and, if the season ended today, would be in the College Football Playoff. But they’ll be without head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was suspended by the Big Ten Conference on Friday due to the ongoing sign stealing scandal. Michigan gave up its most points in a game this season when they allowed a whopping 13 against Purdue. The Wolverine offense averages 40.6 points per game, while its defense is giving up just 6.67. Running back Blake Corum is the player to watch with his league-leading 16 touchdowns.

The Nittany Lions have responded well since their first-season loss to Ohio State three weeks ago. Penn State picked up two conference wins over the last two weeks over Indiana and Maryland. This matchup against Penn State is their last against a ranked team this season and is likely their final chance to have a hope of getting into the CFP. Quarterback Drew Allar enters with 20 touchdowns to only one interception and is looking for the biggest win of his season.

SP+ Rankings

Michigan: 1 overall, 5 offense, 1 defense
Penn State: 5 overall, 21 offense, 4 defense

Injury update

Michigan

WR Karmello English - Questionable (undisclosed)
QB Davis Warren - Questionable (undisclosed)

Penn State

WR Mason Stahl - Questionable (undisclosed)DE Chop Robinson - Questionable (undisclosed)RB Tyler Halzworth - Questionable (undisclosed)WR Feyisayo Oluleye - Questionable (undisclosed)TE Andrew Rappleyea - Questionable (undisclosed)

WR Carmelo Taylor - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Michigan: 4-4-1 ATS
Penn State: 7-2 ATS

Total in 2023

Michigan: Over 4-4-1
Penn State: Over 6-3

Team Pace

Michigan: 1.84 plays per minute of offense
Penn State: 2.23 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Michigan -4.5
Total: 45
Moneyline: Michigan -198, Penn State +164

Weather

Our Best Bet for Michigan vs. Penn State

Michigan -4.5

Penn State is at home, which is usually factored into the point spread. Still, Michigan is absolutely obliterating teams this season. They have scored at least 41 points in five consecutive games, but this will be their first real test of the season. The Wolverines have plenty of off-the-field distractions with the scouting scandal, but I think Blake Corum has another big day, and Michigan covers on the road.