Michigan vs Penn State preview, odds: College Football picks

TheNo. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions will look to reach marquee heights that the programhas failed to ascend to in the past few years as they host the No. 3 ranked Michigan Wolverines on Saturday morning.

Michigan enters this game with a lot of controversy off the field for the sign-stealing scandal, but the performance on the field has been terrific. The Wolverines have won each game this season by at least 24 points, including four consecutive games by at least 38 pointsbefore last week’s 41-13 win against Purdue. J.J. McCarthy is a Heisman Trophy contender largely due to his incredible stats this season. He has thrownfor 2,134 yards and 18 touchdowns to go along with only three interceptions.

Penn State has bounced back nicely from its disappointing 20-12 loss at Ohio State three weeks ago. The Nittany Lions have won two consecutive games, including last week’s 51-15 win against the Maryland Terrapins. The offense took some shots in the passing game, as DrewAllarwas 25-of-34 for 240 yards and four touchdowns. Penn State still has everything in front of it this season, and with a win on Saturday, the Nittany Lions could be right back in the College Football Playoff talks.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, has listed the Wolverines as 5-pointfavorites with an over/under of45 total points.

Let’stake a closer look at the odds and trends:

Michigan Wolverines (9-0) at Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1)

Time/TV: Saturday at 11 a.m. (Fox)

Spread (from Caesars Sportsbook):Michigan -5

Over/under:45

Moneyline:Michigan -215,Penn State +178

Analysis:While McCarthy has beenvery good, the Wolverines are at their best when they are running the ball, and that's largely thanks to their two-headed monster in the backfield.On the season, Blake Corumhas rushed for 649 yards and 16 touchdowns and Donovan Edwards has added another 232 yards and two touchdowns. While the offense isvery good, Michigan's defense is what makes the Wolverines true title contenders. Michigan leads the country in passing defense (141.3 yards allowed per game) and it ranks ninth against the run (90.9 yards allowed per game).

Meanwhile, nobody is better at stopping the run than Penn State. The Nittany Lions allow just 60.6 rushing yards per game and they rely on their ground game offensively too. Penn State has racked up 1,559 yards and 20 touchdowns rushing thus far this season. However, that will not be enough for Penn State to win this game, asAllarneeds to attack the Wolverines through the air.

While the quarterback's stats look solid for the season (1,895 yards, 20 touchdowns, 1 interception), Allar struggled to get going against Ohio State. He finished the day 18-of-42 for 191 yards and one touchdown, which won't be enough to dismantle Michigan's stout defense.

Best bet: Michigan-Penn State UNDER 45 (-110) 

Both teams areelitedefensively, and the offenses will be in check the entire day.The Wolverinesgetthe win in this game, but this is going to be a low-scoringaffair.

Prediction: Michigan 23, Penn State 14