College football spread picks: Predictions for Week 10 of 2023 season

College football isn’t just one of the best sports to watch on a Saturday afternoon, it’s also one of the best to find ways to make plenty of cash as a sharp sports bettor. Each week we’ll find the best value for NCAA football games against the spread, total, and on the moneyline so you can make plenty of cash. No touts, no fees, and just the best numbers we can find.

Here are our best picks on the board to get all the dollars in Week 10 of FBS football. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Collin Sherwin: 2023 Record 14-9-1

Middle Tennessee +3 vs. New Mexico State

While Middle isn’t good, they’re incredibly efficient with the ball and are very unlucky to be just 3-5 ATS this season. Now off a bye week they catch a NMSU team that’s won four in a row, but against four teams that might not be .500 in a good FCS conference (FIU, Sam Houston, UTEP, La Tech). At 3-5 Rick Stockstill’s bunch can still get to a bowl game, while the Aggies are already in one. This just lines up perfectly for the road team here.

Air Force -17.5 vs. Army

The Falcons are undefeated, have covered five of their last six, and are No. 1 in the country in rushing yards per game at 289.9. Army has tried to transition away from triple option, and it has been a disaster this season. They’re 2-6, 0-6 in their last six ATS, and are 125th of 133 in rushing yards per game conceded (205.6). This should be a beatdown.

Florida -3 vs. Arkansas

I got this at -5, it went to -6.5 so I felt good... and now it’s here and I’m on the wrong way. Don’t care, still love it.

Billy Napier has figured out how to get Graham Mertz enough room to win, and with Trevor Etienne a go this feels pretty good. Losing Shemar James hurts, but the Gators defense is a sieve either way. KJ Jefferson was always going to get his today. But he’s also got 15 total turnovers this season by himself, and there’s enough athleticism to force mistakes when the Gators do win defensively.

UF scores 35+ and hangs on enough to get the W here.

Nick Simon: 2023 Record 11-11-2

USC +3 vs. Washington

Washington has been a really fun team to watch with Michael Penix Jr., but let me point some things out. The Huskies have been outgained on offense in each of their last three games and their turnover margin in that span is -6 (seven turnovers vs. just one takeaway). In fact, their turnover margin is -3 for the season. When you’re getting into a potential gun fight with the reigning Heisman winner on the run, you cannot afford to make many mistakes. Yes, the USC defense under Alex Grinch is still poor, but I think the Trojans will assert themselves and capitalize on UW mistakes to win here.

LSU +3 vs. Alabama

LSU will be facing the toughest defense they’ll easily face all year with Alabama yielding just 4.54 ypp and averaging 7.1 TFLs per game. However, the Tigers are entering this game with the most explosive offense in the country, averaging 552.9 yards per game and 8.09 yards per play. They also have the best third-down conversion % in the nation at 57.8%. Some of those stats may be inflated by the Army game two weeks ago, but it still counts!

Now, I do think Jalen Milroe and Jase McClellan will be able to run a little bit on an LSU defense that has had its flaws throughout the season. But if it gets down to a track meet, I trust Jayden Daniels and the Tigers’ skill position players to make plays than the Crimson Tide’s. Give me LSU to cover and win in a hostile environment tonight.

Kansas State vs. Texas over 49.5

Very fascinating game here considering that this is a de-facto Big 12 elimination game with both teams tied in the conference standings. Texas will be starting Maalik Murphy for a second straight week and he looked decent against BYU last Saturday. Meanwhile, K-State has this weird two-QB system with Will Howard and Avery Johnson going for the past few weeks and so far it’s worked. Both teams are going to try to establish the run here with DJ Giddins and Treshaun Ward for K-State going up against Jonathon Brooks, CJ Baxter, and Jaydon Blue for UT. This should be a fun, weird game to watch and I’ll go with the over.

Grace McDermott: 2023 Record 9-13-2

Chris Landers: 2023 Record 10-8-3

Missouri at Georgia over 55

I’m awfully tempted to ride with the Tigers coming off of a bye week and getting more than two touchdowns, but instead I’ll play it a bit safer and simply take the over here — because this number feels far too low based on what we’ve seen from these teams of late. Missouri OC Kirby Moore has been among the most impressive coordinators in the country this year, unlocking previously maligned QB Brady Cook and putting up 30+ points in each of their last six games. Now he gets an extra week to scheme, and Cook gets an extra week to heal up after playing through some nagging injuries. This is a genuinely explosive offense, and this Georgia defense hasn’t been as airtight as we’ve grown accustomed to this season; they just gave up 20 to a Florida team that has far less firepower, after all, and if Missouri can clear that number, it’s hard to see us falling short of this total given the roll that Carson Beck and the Dawgs are on right now.

Boston College +3 at Syracuse

As someone who watched far, far too much (read: more than five minutes) of Syracuse’s pantsing against Virginia Tech last week, color me confused as to how the Orange are giving a field goal to anyone with a pulse right now. And while BC may not be great, they certainly have a pulse with the dangerous Thomas Castellanos under center. The Eagles have won four in a row, and Castellanos leads a dangerous rushing attack that should find plenty of room against an Orange defense that got shredded for 318 yards against VT. (‘Cuse, on the other hand, has still yet to score more than 14 points in a conference game this season, and at this point it’s an open question whether Dino Babers is going to lose this locker room entirely.) This feels like it should be something closer to a pick ‘em, with two teams trending in totally opposite directions, and I’m happy to take the better team getting a not-insignificant number.

Virginia Tech at Louisville over 48

Speaking of the Hokies! This feels like a drastic overreaction to last week, in which both of these teams sat on the ball in the second half while cruising to wins — Virginia Tech over a Syracuse team that is actively disintegrating as previously mentioned, and Louisville against a Duke squad that simply cannot move the ball without a healthy Riley Leonard. Make no mistake, though: These are two very good offenses, and they’ll be playing at a much faster tempo in a far more competitive environment this Saturday. VT has taken off with Kyron Drones at QB, clearing this total in four of their last six, while Brian Brohm’s Cards had cleared this number in five of seven before that Duke game and seem most comfortable when they’re getting into track meets. Both of these teams are eminently capable of scoring in the 30s, and I don’t think either of these fine-but-certainly-not-great defenses will be able to slow them down enough.

Chinmay Vaidya: 2023 Record 12-9-3

Mizzou +14.5 vs. Georgia

This line has jumped around a bit, so there’s a possibility of waiting to grab a great alternate line such as 10.5 or even 7.5. There’s no way I’m not backing my alma mater in this game, although the sudden surge of Missouri fans being all in on this team does worry me. Georgia at home is a machine and even with Brock Bowers out, there’s going to be a lot for the Tigers to do defensively to stay in this game. I think Mizzou’s offense can keep it close enough to cover a two-touchdown spread.

Washington-USC over 76.5

The Huskies actually do have a defense, so there’s a chance they truly do a number on Caleb Williams. I don’t think that happens to the USC quarterback, especially with him seeing his draft stock fall in recent weeks. Washington still has national title aspirations and will use the No. 5 CFP ranking as motivation. USC will have to match the Huskies score for score. I’ll take all the points in this one.

Notre Dame -2.5 vs. Clemson

Betting whole numbers can put you in a tough spot so I’ll go a half-point down on the line right now. The reality is you can probably look to bet a higher alternate line on the Irish. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney’s radio rant may provide a fun narrative to fire up the Tigers, but the Irish are much better overall. You can take Notre Dame with confidence Saturday.

Teddy Ricketson: 2023 Record 7-13-1

Ole Miss -3 vs. Texas A&M (-112)

Fans want Jaxson Dart’s name thrown into the Heisman mix, and he will have a good chance to make that happen this weekend. The Aggies are having a down year at 5-3, but still have a formidable defense. Dart heads into this game with 21 total touchdowns and 2,406 yards and should help Ole Miss cover.

Oklahoma -6 vs. Oklahoma State (-112)

One of the several annoying things about conference re-alignment is it can spell the end of some rivalry games. While the win/loss record in the series doesn’t exactly fit the “rivalry” nametag, Bedlam is one of the most looked forward to weekends in the Big 12. With the Sooners jumping ship to the SEC next season, they get one more chance to make a statement win over their in-state rivals. Kansas got the better of them on the road last week, but Oklahoma bounces back and covers by at least one touchdown.

Georgia Southern -2 vs. Texas State (-110)

The Eagles are having a great season, sitting at 6-2 and in second place in the Sun Belt East heading into the game. Georgia Southern’s two losses this year have been to a still-undefeated James Madison and Wisconsin from early in the year. Texas State is coming off a loss, and despite being at home, I don’t think the Bobcats can keep the Eagles from covering.