College football Week 10 model projections: Predicted scores for every FBS vs. FBS game
There are a number of big games in college football this week, but let’s talk a bit about one that isn’t among the top-25, conference-deciding showdowns. Not only did Northwestern vs. Iowa open with an historically low total, but my projections actually thought that number was too high.
The odds on that total have gone up since it opened below 30, but my projection model has those two teams combining to score 28.5 points. I’m not going to act like I have any confidence in that game. It’s such an outlier that I have no idea if my model is able to correctly account for it, but do you want to bet that over? Two service academies are playing each other this week, Air Force and Army, and that’s still not the lowest total of the week.
As for the bigger games, LSU at Alabama made my best bets this week. Let’s take a look at the projections for the rest of the Week 10 slate.
My model has point differentials and point totals for every FBS vs. FBS game. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
Michigan should be punished, say 94% of CFB coaches in our poll. What else did it reveal?
Full Week 10 model projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
