College football Week 9 model projections: Predicted scores for every FBS game

There are nine realistic College Football Playoff contenders left and two of those teams are vulnerable this week. My college football projection model has Oregon State as the favorite against undefeated Washington and Louisville's projected margin of victory at Miami is a mere half point. Will either of those contenders go down on Saturday? We…

This week's college football projections have a bit of an oddity. Five Week 11 games are projected as toss-ups according to my model. Missouri vs. Tennessee is a top 25 matchup that is a toss-up in my numbers and a pick'em in the betting odds. The other four games that my model has as toss-ups are Virginia Tech at Boston College, Texas State at…

There are a number of big games in college football this week, but let's talk a bit about one that isn't among the top-25, conference-deciding showdowns. Not only did Northwestern vs. Iowa open with an historically low total, but my projections actually thought that number was too high. The odds on that total have gone up since it opened below 30,…

This week's college football schedule doesn't feature any top-10 matchups like last week, but as the number of contenders in the College Football Playoff race starts to shrink, everyone is on upset watch. Which teams will survive another week? The Utah Utes host the Oregon Ducks in what is arguably the biggest game of the week. The winner stays in…

The Red River Rivalry is the biggest game on paper this week in college football. The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are undefeated and a big win by either team would propel the victor into the top tier of national title contenders. The Georgia Bulldogs also get a test from the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats. Plus, the Ohio State Buckeyes host…

There's no shortage of big games in college football this week. Ohio State goes to Notre Dame, Florida State goes to Clemson and three Pac-12 games are pitting undefeated teams against each other. Will Deion Sanders' Colorado make a statement or be exposed? Will Notre Dame get a rare win against a top-10 team? Which contenders will get upset? We'll…

The Week 3 schedule in college football does not feature any games including two top 25 teams. It also doesn't feature any clear marquee games either. Florida hosts Tennessee in a rivalry game and No. 1 Georgia gets its first test against an SEC foe in South Carolina. Still though, both college football pregame shows are at Colorado-Colorado State,…

Week 1 of the college football season gave us some new data, but don't get caught overreacting to opening games. There are plenty examples of teams making statement wins only to find out the opposition wasn't that great. With that in mind, let's take a look at what my model thinks will happen in Week 2. My model has point differentials and point…

College football returns Saturday with seven games, including FBS teams. There are two conference games (both in Conference-USA) and two top 25 teams in action (Notre Dame and USC). Let's take a look at what my model projects to happen in those games and what edges we have in the betting market. Last season's regular season record: 65-55-5, +8.75…

It's bowl season which means there will be games almost every day for the next few weeks. It also means there are tons of opt outs and transfers. My model is attempting to project scores, but there needs to be a big disclaimer in terms of what to expect from the projections. Adjustments have been made for opt outs and transfers at the time of…

Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication Point spread: Ohio State comes into the game as 8 point favorites against Michigan, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. Total: 55.5 points Moneyline: Michigan+240 | Ohio State -333 Where Michigan is right now: The No.3 ranked Wolverines have passed every test and…

It's the last week of the regular season in college football. There are rivalries all over the place and division titles and conference championship game spots at stake. Thanksgiving means there are a number of games on Friday and the Egg Bowl on Thursday, which is included in my best bets for the week. The model also has updated projections for…

The streak lasted six games, but for the first time all season Michigan football is no longer a double-digit favorite to win a football game. This week, the number is just a touchdown. The Wolverines opened as seven-point betting favorites for their game against No. 10 Penn State on Saturday (Noon, FOX) at Circa Las Vegas, where the first college…

A pair of old Big Ten rivals meet up in the conference opener as Michigan State hosts Minnesota in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday. Michigan State returns home after a costly loss at Washington, dropping out of the top 25 rankings, while Minnesota is perfect through 3 games, outscoring opponents 149-17. What do the experts think of the…

After not seeing any value in an entertaining Week 0 of the college football season, we are back with a handful of bets in Week 1 (the "real" start of college football). My college football betting model returns this year after going 52-43-3 last season for a 4.7% ROI. It's early in the season and there are a ton of changes throughout the college…

Two games in the Big Ten have shaken up the New Year's Six projections this week. The big one was Michigan State coming from behind to beat Michigan in East Lansing as a four-point underdog, according to William Hill Sportsbook. The Spartans knocked the Wolverines out of the New Year's Six projections and themselves move up to the No. 6 position in…

After all the massive matchups in Week 4, the big games aren't as obvious this week. Will there be more upsets with several top teams playing conference games on the road? Georgia and Michigan both hit the road for the first time, although Auburn and Nebraska aren't exactly top competition. Among top 10 teams, Penn…

After weeks of buildup, we are finally getting the first Big Ten East showdown between power programs. The Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions have both gotten this far in the season without a loss and now they meet in Columbus. My model favors the Buckeyes by 4.5 points, the same number as the betting spread. What else is worth…

It's the final week of the college football regular season and there are tons of in-state rivalry games taking place. Oh, and Ohio State is going to Michigan when both teams are 11-0. My model has the Wolverines favored, but Ohio State+3.5 is among my best bets this week. Iowa at Nebraska is not the Big Ten game everyone will be watching, but the…

There are two massive games with small spreads this week in college football. One of them, Notre Dame - USC, is a pick'em according to my model. The other, Washington -Oregon, has the Huskies has a small favorite at home. What else should we expect from college football this weekend? Let's see what my model says for those games and every other FBS…

It's the final college football Saturday of the season, which means we have 10 conference championship games on tap this week. Beyond conference titles, all four College Football Playoff spots are up for grabs. My model has projected point differentials and point totals for all 10 games. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and…

There are no top 10 showdowns this week in college football, but Alabama is yet again on the road with a tough test, this time at Ole Miss. Plus, TCU heads to Texas as a touchdown-underdog. Will we see upsets further shake up the College Football Playoff race? My model has projected scores for those games as well as every FBS vs. FBS game this…

College football is back in full force this week, with every top 25 team in action in Week 1. Starting Thursday, there are five straight days of games, including a Labor Day Monday ACC game between Clemson and Duke. My model has projected scores for Week 1. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then…

College football bowl season has rapidly changed in recent years with the rise of transfers and opt-outs. That could become even more exaggerated with the expansion of the playoff to 12 teams next year. For now, it means projecting these games is a mess. My college football model has projected scores and point totals for every bowl game, including…

Texas says hello to the national college football landscape. The Longhorns won in Alabama and led most of the game. The Texas is back jokes are easy, but just how back are the Longhorns? My College Football Playoff projection model has unsurprisingly put Texas into the top tier of contenders. This week's projections give eight teams a greater than…