College football Week 11 model projections: Predicted scores for every FBS vs. FBS game

This week’s college football projections have a bit of an oddity. Five Week 11 games are projected as toss-ups according to my model.

Missouri vs. Tennessee is a top 25 matchup that is a toss-up in my numbers and a pick ’em in the betting odds. The other four games that my model has as toss-ups are Virginia Tech at Boston College, Texas State at Coastal Carolina, UAB at Navy and Washington State at Cal. There are three other games where the projected differential is just half a point: Central Michigan at Western Michigan, Rutgers at Iowa and Auburn at Arkansas. We should have some fun games this week.

Among the bigger games, the Florida State–Miami over made my best bets this week as well as the under in Alabama at Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the projections for the rest of the Week 11 slate.

My model has point differentials and point totals for every FBS vs. FBS game. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.

Full Week 11 model projections

XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.