College football Week 12 model projections: Predicted scores for every FBS vs. FBS game

There are nine realistic College Football Playoff contenders left and two of those teams are vulnerable this week. My college football projection model has Oregon State as the favorite against undefeated Washington and Louisville’s projected margin of victory at Miami is a mere half point.

Will either of those contenders go down on Saturday? We haven’t seen any top contenders lose in recent weeks with the same five undefeated teams staying at the top.

Of the other top teams, Georgia (at Tennessee) and Texas (at Iowa State) have single-digit projected margins of victory. Let’s see how the rest of this week’s slate looks.

My model has point differentials and point totals for every FBS vs. FBS game. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.

Full Week 12 model projections

XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.