College football Week 5 model projections: Predicted scores for every FBS vs. FBS game

After all the massive matchups in Week 4, the big games aren’t as obvious this week. Will there be more upsets with several top teams playing conference games on the road?

Georgia and Michigan both hit the road for the first time, although Auburn and Nebraska aren’t exactly top competition. Among top 10 teams, Penn State, USC, Oregon and Washington also face conference road games.

Here’s what my model projects for those matchups and every other Week 5 game. My model has point differentials and point totals for every FBS vs. FBS game. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.

college football season, check out my best bets, which are based off my model’s projections.

Full Week 5 model projections

XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.