College football Week 9 model projections: Predicted scores for every FBS vs. FBS game

This week’s college football schedule doesn’t feature any top-10 matchups like last week, but as the number of contenders in the College Football Playoff race starts to shrink, everyone is on upset watch. Which teams will survive another week?

The Utah Utes host the Oregon Ducks in what is arguably the biggest game of the week. The winner stays in the CFP race with one loss and takes a big step closer to the Pac-12 title game. The loser will need some help to get there. Meanwhile, three undefeated teams, Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State take on quality opposition away from home. What are the odds any of them lose? Let’s take a look.

My model has point differentials and point totals for every FBS vs. FBS game. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.

my best bets, which are based off my model’s projections.

Full Week 9 model projections

XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.