College Football Week 9 Player Props Opening Line Best Bets
Devin Leary, QB, Kentucky vs. Tennessee - Under 211.5 Passing Yards
Tayvion Robinson, WR, Kentucky vs. Tennessee - Under 42.5 Receiving Yards
FanDuel actually hung Leary’s line at 215.5 Passing Yards and Tayvion Robinson at 42.5 Receiving Yards and are now down to 204.5 and 38.5 respectively. Fortunately Draft Kings still has them up at 211.5 Passing and 42.5 Receiving, so i’d advise to hit those numbers before they drop to a more logical level.
Leary hasn’t cleared 128 yards in any of his last three games against Missouri/Georgia/Florida, and managed just 205 against Vanderbilt. In fact he hasn’t cleared 211 passing yards since September 16th against perennial MAC doormat Akron.
As Leary has gone, so has Tayvion Robinson, with the slot receiver going for 25 Receiving yards or less in his last four games. Especially concerning is Robinson dropped a pair of targets against Georgia two weeks ago, and subsequently ran just 15 routes last week against Missouri, while outside Barion Brown led the team with 27 routes run.
As if those trends weren’t concerning enough, Kentucky runs the fewest offensive plays per game in the entire country (58) and faces a Tennessee pass D that ranks seventh overall while holding opponents to a 32.6% success rate (5th) and 4.6 yards per play (11th).
With Kentucky’s passing game proving to be completely ineffective against SEC opponents, i’m offering a strong recommendation to play these two Unders. It’s good business to at least take the built in line value on these 2 props which are a mortal lock to plummet once this column drops, opening up arbitrage opportunities. I personally think Robinson should be 29.5, tops and Draft Kings is going to be watching reruns of “Rescue Me” starring Devin Leary’s uncle, Dennis Leary, after taking a beating on this line.
Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee at Kentucky - Under 0.5 Touchdowns
Underdog blessed us with a touchdown prop on Jaylen Wright, HALLELUJAH! While i’m one of the college fantasy football community’s most staunch Jaylen Wright defenders, touchdown production has been elusive for “Mr. Wright” this year. In seven games, Wright has cashed in just 1 touchdown thus far, coming in a 41-21 rout of South Carolina three games ago. Last game he handled 12 of 25 backfield carries, as Dylan Sampson showed some pop with two, 10+ yard carries while Jabari Small is the designated short-yardage back.
As previously mentioned, Tennessee plays a Kentucky team that ranks dead last running 58 offensive plays per game on average and ranks 23rd nationally in team rush defense, indicating we’re probably not going to get a Katie-bar-the-door shootout between these two teams whose defenses are clearly the better of the two units for each program. Underdog should not have put Under 0.5 Touchdowns out as an Under option, so hit this prop until they mercifully pull it down.
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Carson Beck, QB, Georgia at Florida - Over 265.5 Passing Yards
One of my all-time favorite songs by legendary crooner “Beck” is his seductive classic “Debra” off of his 1999 LP “Midnight Vultures”. It’s an obscure track, but one viewing of Beck’s live performance of Debra at the 2000 VHI Music Awards is enough to convert the uninitiated to the greatness of that song. Georgia QB Carson Beck is similar to “Debra” in that he’s somehow managed to go under-the-radar in high-falutin conversations surrounding NFL caliber quarterbacks that are currently operating at the collegiate level, despite being verifiably excellent.
Beck ranks fourth nationally with an 82.5% adjusted completion rate and fifth overall in PFF passing grade while piloting Georgia’s offense to 3.7 points per drive (4th) and a 53% success rate (6th). He has only been pressured on 39 of his 256 dropbacks and has shown the ability to navigate the pocket under duress, as is evidenced by his 12.8% pressure-to-sack rate. Last week Beck easily orchestrated a 37-20 victory over Vanderbilt where he completed 74% of his throws for 261 passing yards. Which was the first time all season that Beck threw for Under 266 yards, despite facing Kentucky, @Auburn and South Carolina.
Georgia OC Mike Bobo is a tried-and-true believer in the passing game, as the Aaron Murray Era of UGA football clearly indicated. This line feels like an overreaction to star TE Brock Bowers’ injury, as Georgia is not going to take their foot off the gas against a surging Florida team that could give them a scare if not handled properly. Give me the Over 265.5 Passing Yards, Two Turntables, and a Microphone from one of my pantheon favorite 90’s musicians.
