Cowboys vs. Bills Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 15

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15 December 2023

Cowboys vs. Bills Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 15

The Dallas Cowboys andBuffalo Bills will conjure up memories of the early 1990s Super Bowls when theymeet in Week 15, and we offer our best Cowboys vs. Bills predictions based onthe best NFL odds.

After defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 33-13 last week, the Dallas Cowboys moved into a first-place tie in the NFC East with a 10-3 record. The Cowboys are currently on a five-game winning streak, tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. According to ESPN Analytics, they now have a 30% chance to win the division.

Buffalo, one of six teams with a 7-6 record competing for the AFC's final two Wild Card spots, significantly increased its playoff odds (43% per PFF) with a 20-17 road win against the Kansas City Chiefs. This victory marked the Bills' first road win since Week 3 against the Washington Commanders.

As part of our NFL Week 15 predictions, here is our best Cowboys vs. Bills prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cowboys vs. Billsprediction

Under 49.5 (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Makinga pick on the point spread was difficult for this high-profile matchup, as eachside has pros and cons.

Dallas is playing some of the best football in theleague right now, in particular quarterback Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys havewon 15 consecutive home games and own a +171 point differential in home gamesthis season with only a +17 differential on the road. Prescott's play positions him among the favorites by the NFL MVP odds.

Meanwhile, Buffalo may beovervalued after doing what it has always done under head coach Sean McDermott,winning after a regular-season bye (7-0), while the Bills are 3-6 inone-possession games. Therefore, we are passing on the near coin-flip spreadand instead expect a low-scoring game between these two.

Prescotthas thrown multiple touchdowns in seven consecutive games, posting a 22-2TD-INT ratio in that span. However, his home/road splits are egregious, andplaying outdoors on a windy day in Buffalo should lower his ceilingconsiderably.

Prescott has completed 74% of his passes with a 20-2 TD-INT ratioand a 122.5 passer rating at home this season, but his completion percentagedrops to 63.5% one the road, along with steady decreases in average passingyards (-1.6 yards per attempt), TD-INT ratio (8-4 ) and passer rating (88.8).Entering Week 14, Dallas was converting 49% of its third downs, already on pacefor its highest rate in a season since 2006. And while it improved that mark bygoing 9-of-16 on third down last week, it came against a Philadelphia defensethat ranked 31st or worse in points per game (31.0), yards per game (432.3),and third-down percentage (58%) over the prior three weeks.

Buffalohas averaged 416 yards per game since Week 12, the third-most in the NFL. Butit faces a Cowboys defense that just held Jalen Hurts to his third-lowest QBRof the season (38), and one that allows the fifth-fewest passing yards per game(183.9). Thus, we expect the Bills to lean even more on a rejuvenated groundgame after outrushing Kansas City by 36 yards.

In addition, James Cook is thefirst Bills running back with four straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards sinceLeSean McCoy in 2016. But as long as wide receiver Stefon Diggs struggles toget open consistently (he has four or fewer catches and 34 or fewer yards inthree of the last four games), Buffalo’s offensive ceiling is much lower, andit will continue to resort to grinding out drives and limiting possessions.

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Cowboys vs. Bills best odds

AsUnder backers, the best number is found at FanDuel, the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a total as high as 49.5. We would play this number down to 49, makingthe slightly cheaper -108 odds at DraftKings appealing, but we will not pass atany price as long as we get a higher number like the one FanDuel offers.

Buffalo has been a great Under team of late, cashing it in five of its last sixgames.

Cowboys vs. Bills odds

Allmovement has gone toward the Over thus far, as all our best sportsbooks opened with atotal of 48.5. There was slight buyback on the Under at BetMGM when the totalfirst got to 49.5, but it quickly rebounded back to 49.5 after a slight dip onMonday afternoon to 49. Fifty-eight percent of the early wagers have backed theOver.

Caesars and DraftKings are the only two sportsbooks offering a spread of Bills -2,while all others are in unison at -2.5. Any line movement off the openingnumber has gone in Buffalo’s favor, as most shops had the Bills as 1.5-pointfavorites on Sunday night and Monday morning. DraftKings is the only shop thatwent back down to -2 after reaching -2.5, but no sportsbook has reached the keynumber of three yet. There is a chance the line will get to -3 before kickoffif the Bills keep getting most of the betting action (early wagers are 68/32 insupport of Buffalo).