Cricket World Cup 2023: Standings, ladder, fixtures, how does Australia qualify for semi-finals?

We’re beyond the halfway point of the 2023 Cricket World Cup in India, and the semi-final race is starting to take shape.

Every team plays nine matches in the ten-team round robin, with hosts India the only nation yet to taste defeat. Every team has registered at least one victory, the first time it’s happened at a World Cup since 1992.

Six victories should be enough to ensure a semi-final berth, but it is statistically possible for a nation to qualify with just three wins, while a team with seven wins can theoretically miss the knockouts as well.

As such, net run rate could prove crucial. Australia famously missed the semi-finals for last year’s T20 World Cup due to their low net run rate, while South Africa suffered the same fate in 2021.

Currently, only one win separates fourth and seventh on the World Cup standings, with three nations equal on four points, split by a net run rate of 0.764. None of those sides have officially been disqualified, but it would take something miraculous for Sri Lanka, Pakistan or Afghanistan to qualify for the knockouts.

Afghanistan remains a shock contender for the time being, however, after stunning Pakistan on Monday night.

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After getting their World Cup campaign off to a horror start, Australia’s path to the semi-finals looks a bit clearer following England’s dramatic downfall.

Australia is expected to defeat Afghanistan and Bangladesh, so their remaining group stage matches against England and New Zealand will be vital for the five-time world champions.

If they lose both matches, their chances of qualifying for the semi-finals take a big hit, while winning one of them should be enough to book a spot in the knockouts.

However, Australia needs to keep its net run rate above Pakistan and Sri Lanka, so securing heavy wins over Afghanistan and Bangladesh will boost their odds significantly.

Needless to say, Australia should aim to win all five of their remaining group stage matches, but losing to the Black Caps wouldn’t be the end of the world. In such a scenario, they’d almost certainly still qualify.

Meanwhile, if Pat Cummins’ men defeat England in Ahmedabad next week, it would officially knock their Ashes rivals out of the tournament.

All this, of course, depends entirely on what happens in the other groups stage matches. A couple of additional surprise upsets could completely alter the semi-finals race, and the path to the knockouts will become clearer in the coming days.

India’s semi-final spot is all but secure despite a couple of tough games against England and South Africa on the horizon. Even if the hosts lost both matches, they’d almost certainly still finish in the top four.

Meanwhile, South Africa currently boasts the highest net run rate of the tournament, which could prove decisive at the end of the group stage. Despite their unexpected loss to the Netherlands, the Proteas must defeat Pakistan and Afghanistan to progress through to the semi-finals — unless something drastic happens to their net run rate.

New Zealand finds itself in a similar situation, with the Blacks Caps having to defeat Pakistan and Sri Lanka to finish safely in the top four, pending net run rate.

However, Pakistan’s road to the semi-finals is less simple.

Babar Azam’s side will need to thrash Bangladesh to help their poor net run rate, and beat South Africa, New Zealand and England. Only then would they even have a chance of qualifying on the assumption that Australia doesn’t suffer any shock losses — or Afghanistan continues a giant-slaying run.

Then there’s England, the reigning champions, who have lost four of their opening five matches, including a humbling loss to Afghanistan in Delhi.

England needs to win all four of its remaining group stage matches, including highly-anticipated contests against India and Australia, to give themselves even a slim chance of finishing in the top four. It’s unlikely, but not impossible. Even then, they’ll be relying on other results in the competition.

STANDINGS (as of October 27)

1. India – Won 5, Lost 0, Net RR +1.353

2. South Africa – Won 4, Lost 1, Net RR +2.370

3. New Zealand – Won 4, Lost 1, Net RR +1.481

4. Australia – Won 3, Lost 2, Net RR +1.142

5. Sri Lanka – Won 2, Lost 3, Net RR -0.205

6. Pakistan – Won 2, Lost 3, Net RR -0.400

7. Afghanistan – Won 2, Lost 3, Net RR -0.969

8. Bangladesh – Won 1, Lost 4, Net RR -1.253

9. England – Won 1, Lost 4, Net RR -1.634

10. Netherlands – Won 1, Lost 4, Net RR -1.902

Top 4 advance to semi-finals

REMAINING WORLD CUP FIXTURES

October 27

Pakistan vs South Africa, 7.30pm – M A Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai

October 28

Australia vs New Zealand, 4pm – HPCA Stadium, Dharamsala

The Netherlands vs Bangladesh, 7.30pm – Eden Gardens, Kolkata

October 29

India vs England, 7.30pm – BRSABV Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow

October 30

Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka, 7.30pm – Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune

October 31

Pakistan vs Bangladesh, 7.30pm – Eden Gardens, Kolkata

November 1

New Zealand vs South Africa, 7.30pm – Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune

November 2

India vs Sri Lanka 7.30pm – Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai

November 3

The Netherlands vs Afghanistan, 7.30pm – BRSABV Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow

November 4

New Zealand vs Pakistan, 4pm – M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru

England vs Australia, 7.30pm – Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad

November 5

India vs South Africa, 7.30pm – Eden Gardens, Kolkata

November 6

Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, 7.30pm – Arun Jaitley Stadium, New Delhi

November 7

Australia vs Afghanistan, 7.30pm – Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai

November 8

England vs the Netherlands, 7.30pm – Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune

November 9

New Zealand vs Sri Lanka, 7.30pm – M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru

November 10

South Africa vs Afghanistan, 7.30pm – Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad

November 11

Australia vs Bangladesh, 4pm – Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune

England vs Pakistan, 7.30pm – Eden Gardens, Kolkata

November 12

India vs the Netherlands, 7.30pm – M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru

November 15

Semi-final 1: First place vs Fourth place, 7.30pm – Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai

November 16

Semi-final 2: Second place vs Third place, 7.30pm – Eden Gardens, Kolkata

November 19

Final: Winner of Semi-final 1 vs winner of Semi-final 2, 7.30pm – Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad