Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic Predictions & Odds for 2023 US Open Final

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09 September 2023

Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic Predictions & Odds for 2023 US Open Final

Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic meet for the third time at a Grand Slam final, with each winning one of their previous two matchups. Read on as we discuss who will hold the head-to-head series edge in our US Open final prediction.

Novak Djokovic is a three-time US Open champion and is seeking a record-tying 24th Major title. This is Djokovic’s 10th US Open final appearance (tied for the most among men) and his 36th major final overall.

Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev won his only Grand Slam title at the 2021 US Open, beating Djokovic in straight sets (6-4, 6-4, 6-4). He's looking for his second major title during the 27-year-old's fifth final.

Djokovic leads the overall head-to-head series 9-5, with an 8-4 edge on hardcourts and a 2-1 record in majors.

Here is our best Medvedev-Djokovic prediction for the 2023 US Open final (odds via our best sports betting apps; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Medvedev vs. Djokovic odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

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Medvedev vs. Djokovic prediction

Djokovic -4.5 games (-105 via DraftKings, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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We're facing a chance for a big payday after backing Medvedev at +1000 odds in our US Open preview. And while we would be thrilled if he went on to win, this wager is by no means a hedge on that pre-tournament bet.

Instead, it's a fade of Medvedev due to the war of attrition he's been through to this point. When we tipped him two weeks ago, we were hoping he would avoid the gauntlet of needing to defeat Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic in consecutive matches.

History is against Medvedev beating Alcaraz and Djokovic back-to-back. Medvedev would become just the 11th player ever to knock off the top two seeds at a major, according to ESPN Stats & Information. He'd also be the second to do so at the US Open, and the first at any major since 2015.

The backdrop was much different during the 2021 US Open when Medvedev beat Djokovic in straight sets. Djokovic was perhaps feeling the pressure of securing the calendar Grand Slam (winning all four majors in a single year), and he uncharacteristically lost the first set in four consecutive matches. Djokovic spent more than 5.5 hours longer on the court than Medvedev, who had dropped only one set during his path to the final.

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Medvedev may have lost just three sets total during this US Open run and only one set in his last two matches combined. However, he said that “someone is going to die” in the blazing heat and humidity during his straight-set quarterfinal win over Andrey Rublev, and his four-set semifinal victory over Alcaraz was an absolute war. Alcaraz’s service game at 2-3 in the second set took 13 minutes alone, and Medvedev’s last service game to close out the match featured five deuces. He needed to save three break points with the crowd clearly on the Spaniard’s side begging for more tennis.

Djokovic is an outstanding strategist, and his straight-set victory over world pre-tournament No. 47 Ben Shelton involved much less effort. Thus, Djokovic will likely utilize his rest advantage against Medvedev and get involved with longer, more punishing rallies from the baseline. Alcaraz didn't do that in the semifinals, instead coming to the net much more frequently than usual (he won 54 of 70 net points). That played into Medvedev’s hands and helped him conserve energy, though Alcaraz did exhaust him on multiple occasions with his crafty drop shots.

This is a four-star play, as Djokovic has tied Roger Federer and Steffi Graf with the most years (three) reaching all four major finals. It will be difficult for Medvedev to keep up his high-level play the longer the match goes on, and we're looking for something like a dominant 6-2 set victory for Djokovic to help cash this game spread with ease.

US Open final best odds

There's a stark difference among our five best sportsbooks in the juice being charged for a game spread of Djokovic -4.5. Djokovic backers will get the most return for their money at DraftKings and bet365, while two others (BetMGM and bet365) are on the opposite side and juiced more to lay the 4.5 games with the favorite. Given that DraftKings and Caesars are lower at -105 odds, one can likely back Djokovic at -3.5 games for around the same -120 odds at bet365 while getting an extra game’s worth of flexibility.

If you think Djokovic wins the match but not in straight sets (DraftKings is featuring Medvedev at -280 to win at least one set), then bettors should look hard at Djokovic’s -115 odds to win Over 20.5 games through DraftKings.

Though the last four head-to-head matches between these players were in a best-of-three format, there are no discernible trends. The four matches have been split evenly between cashing the Over and Under on total games.