Daytona 500 predictions: NASCAR Cup Series odds, picks

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season is upon us, as the green flag drops at the Daytona 500 on Sunday.

Each week, we’ll see 40 drivers take their shot at a race win and an elusive spot in the playoffs.

The latest 2024 championship odds feature three drivers at the top, with defending champion Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, and William Byron sitting at +550 on FanDuel.

The other top contenders include Denny Hamlin (+750), Chase Elliott (+850), Martin Truex Jr. (+900) and Christopher Bell (+900).

NASCAR’s Next-Gen car has brought parity to the sport, making it a great time to find value in the betting market.

As we examine the 2024 landscape, a few bets have caught my eye for immense value.

If you believe in narratives and trends, Logano should be an easy championship pick for 2024. Since NASCAR implemented the 16-driver playoff field in 2014, Logano has never missed the Championship 4 in an even year.

Logano is coming off a down season, but he should rebound with a strong performance. From 2018 to 2022, he finished top-five in the standings four times, including a pair of championships.

He’s also proven to be one of the most clutch drivers in the series. Logano wasn’t the best driver in 2018 or 2022, but he stepped up in the playoffs and grabbed the championship.

The 33-year-old veteran watched his teammate win the championship last season. He’ll have much motivation during the regular season, and his strong playoff performance should put him in contention for a third title.

There’s no better value on the board than Chastain to win the championship at 20/1. Chastain came out of nowhere to become a legit contender in 2022, finishing second to Logano.

Chastain led the standings through 14 races last season, but his aggressive driving style caused controversy. It seemed like he changed his approach, leading to a disappointing second half.

Still, he showed potential in the playoffs and won the season finale at Phoenix. His success at Phoenix is crucial because the championship always seems to come down to the final race. Chastain has finished top-three in three of his last four starts at the track.

There’s no way someone of Chastain’s caliber should have the 14th-best championship odds. I love the 20/1 price and would bet it down to 14/1.

Bowman drives for the best team in Hendrick Motorsports but is often the forgotten fourth driver. He had a great start to the 2023 season, leading the points after six races. Unfortunately, a back injury forced him to miss three races.

He just wasn’t the same in his return, but 2024 marks a fresh beginning. Last season, Bowman and new crew chief Blake Harris looked like surprise contenders. I believe they can recapture the early-season success and continue it throughout 2024. 

Bowman’s teammates are three of the championship favorites, but I’m not ruling out a Championship 4 appearance. He nearly made it in 2020, then had a four-win season in 2021.

Bowman has won at two of the three Round of 8 tracks. If he can remain consistent throughout the season, he has a chance to surprise people with a Championship 4 appearance.

Like teammate Bowman, Elliott also missed time last season with a leg injury. He wasn’t bad in his return but nothing close to his potential as he missed the playoffs for the first time.

I believe last year was an outlier for Elliott, as the 2020 champion won multiple races from 2018 to 2022. The 2021 season is the only time he failed to win three races in that stretch.

I’m backing Elliott for his road-course prowess and success in the Next-Gen car. Elliott captured seven road-course wins in 11 races from 2018 to 2021. It’s surprising he hasn’t won on a road course since, but he’s led a ton of laps.