Duke vs. NC State prediction: College basketball odds, best bets

The Duke Blue Devils remain within striking distance of a share of the ACC regular season title as they trail the North Carolina Tar Heels by one game heading into the final week. 

But first, they must take care of business on the road against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. 

Monday night’s game will be the only regular-season meeting between the two schools. Duke won 71-67 at home last season to earn a split in the season series.

Duke opened as a 5.5-point road favorite, but now the betting market has pushed that number up to 6.5 at most North Carolina sportsbooks. 

Laying points on the road is always a difficult ask in any sport, and with the Blue Devils set to close out the regular season against the Tar Heels, this a dangerous matchup against a Wolfpack team that could thrive in this revenge spot as a home underdog.

Although the Blue Devils are 17-11-1 overall this season against the spread, they’re 4-5-1 on the road. Moreover, in the last 10 games in this series, Duke is 6-4 straight-up but just 3-7 against the spread.

With this being an in-state matchup, it makes sense that the Blue Devils will always get the Wolfpack’s best effort.

Despite ranking 33rd in defensive efficiency (96.4), the Blue Devils allow almost five more points per 100 possessions on the road (101.8). 

At home, the Blue Devils feed off the energy of the boisterous crowd at Cameron Indoor Stadium, creating 2.8 extra-scoring chances per game, according to TeamRankings. However, when on the road, those chances drop to 1.3. 

Considering we have a projected line that separates these teams by 6.5 points, having fewer extra-scoring chances could certainly come into play in this matchup.

With a 17-12 record and a 9-9 mark in conference play, NC State desperately needs a signature win to have a chance of making the NCAA Tournament. 

The Wolfpack are currently on the outside looking in as TeamRankings projects they currently have a zero percent chance of receiving an at-large bid. 

Nevertheless, we’re not particularly concerned with NC State’s long-term prospects. We’re simply trying to assess its chances of covering Monday’s 6.5-point spread.

Per Bball.net, NC State is just 1-6 in Quad 1 games. However, in those games, the Wolfpack went 4-2-1 against the spread. 

Furthermore, NC State is 3-0-1 against the spread in its last four Quad 1 games. Those numbers suggest at least some improvement throughout the season.

Recently, the Wolfpack covered the spread as 9.5-point underdogs against the Tar Heels.

NC State does have some pretty severe home/away splits. Its offensive efficiency (111.3) is 11 points higher at home, while defensively (97), the Wolfpack allows 9.4 fewer points.

Those numbers should not be overlooked as the Blue Devils make the short trip to PNC Arena. 

(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

There’s no question the Wolfpack are behind Duke and North Carolina regarding basketball dominance in the state. I get the sense these games just mean more to the Wolfpack as they try to measure up against its in-state rivals.

There’s also a chance the Wolfpack could catch the Blue Devils looking ahead to Saturday’s matchup against North Carolina.

According to KillerSports, Duke is 11-16 (40.7%) against the spread since 2012 in games when North Carolina is its next opponent.

Lastly, NC State is 3-0 against the spread as a home underdog in a revenge spot off a loss of four or fewer points.

This is a matchup where a qualitative approach might have more relevance than any quantitative analysis we can put together. 

As a result, I’m siding with the Wolfpack and taking the 6.5 points at home.

Pick: North Carolina State +6.5 (-110, BetMGM) or better

Michael Arinze is a sports handicapper for Action Network. Follow him on X @Vegas_Analytics.